Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Cavalry coming (from a distance)
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Well, that’s interesting. The inverted morning-long rally signal had scared away buyers ahead of expiration. Through yesterday afternoon’s no-bias environment, the market had been ranging choppily sideways between the morning’s 2038.50 low and the afternoon’s 2050.50 bias-up signal. Pent-up buying pressure could have begun breaking higher within 10-15 minutes of the 2:30 bias environment exit but didn’t (which is when I had to leave early). The exit, itself, was drifting lower, so a rally was unlikely. Even the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window drifted. Then the last 5 minutes plunged to end the cash session at 2032.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s closing plunge barely paused until attacking 2022.00 through the Globex open. That extended to 2015.50 and then lower to 2012.00 — after an interim attack on 2030.00 triggered by the Yen’s overnight head-fake. The 2012.00 low is being retested now.
If, then…
Today’s bullish WedEX couldn’t ask for much more. So little more*, that not fulfilling it could be due to a massive afternoon meltdown. WedEX influences Friday afternoon and Monday morning. If Thursday morning’s slide helped to discount recent gains from expiration jockeying, then the overnight slide should be a windfall to the bullish WedEX driving price higher into and out of the weekend… *That “little more” which a bullish WedEX would still want for a Friday afternoon rally is lack of Friday morning follow-through. Lower highs centered around 2012.00 at 2008.00-2014.50 represent “lower prior highs” of the Fri-Mon Island that had required a retest. Exiting the morning’s bias environment back above that range would start to signal that sellers likely absorbed. Already rallying through the morning would not steal any energy from the bullish WedEX. However, trending down through the morning could invert the WedEX to bearish. And all that that entails.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2012.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2015.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2020.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting above 2030.00 would be likely to trigger the 2027.00 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2036.00 | 2027.00 |
| …would target | 2043.00 | 2034.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2024.25 | 2015.25 |
| …would target | 2017.75 | 2008.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Not really “post” market wrap, as we held it an hour early and I am away from the screens through the close…
The afternoon’s bias environment missed a great opportunity to rally. Its no-bias was honored by hovering up at the 2050.50 bias-up signal without trending above it. But a dip to 2045.00 had developed when the bias environment came within view of lapsing. And another dip attacking 2043.00 came after the bias environment started lapsing.
Rallying into Thursday’s close wasn’t necessary to resume the rally Friday, just helpful. Not resuming the decline Thursday is helpful, too — it’s being attempted down to 2041.00, but holding here would allow this little dip to be considered “ineffectual pessimism.” Bullish, from a contrarian perspective.
The proof either way will appear soon. The bullish WedEX wasn’t invalidated, so it is only at risk of being inverted by downtrending through Friday’s open. And that would likely take all upside off the table for awhile.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Livestox Recording Dec 17, 2015
Thursday’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that, including cannabis stocks and requests made to the blog. The last three are the current January Effect candidates Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
SPX
USO
GLD
SLV
AMMJ
CARA
INSY
SPRWF
XXII
MCIG
SUNE
UPS
EYES
DDD
SRNA
GPRO
TWTR
FEYE
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s blip-down to 1.0915 had reacted up sharply intraday, but that didn’t prevent Thursday’s open from gapping down to fresh lows and attacking 1.0825, targeting 1.0750-1.0785.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Suspicion about Wednesday’s close above the 1070.00 buy signal proved out overnight by erasing the intraday gain and opening Thursday back at 1057.20-1061.50 support. This latest test inflected down instead of up, probing fresh lows under 1047.00. The next lower support is 1038.50-1041.00, but closing back above 1061.50 would launch a new rally leg.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce above 14.10 attacked 14.35, but that didn’t neutralize its requirement for a third lower close. Thursday’s gap down to retest 13.70 support provided the lower close, and filled the outstanding gap back to Tuesday’s close. But a close above 14.10 is needed to signal momentum reversing up.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s bounce extended higher overnight to fulfill the 155-29 corrective bounce target. It wasn’t retested intraday, which hovered, suggesting that 155-29 would be retested before a downleg would be credible.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s 34.50 low was attacked to within 10-15 cents Thursday, early enough that delaying its test suggests “ineffectual optimism.” Rather than to form a bottom from retesting the low, delaying its retest much longer could extend the downleg.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The premature bounce to 1.85 resistance proved it was “ineffectual optimism” ahead of Thurdsay’s EIA report, which triggered a reversal down to test 1.77, still targeting 1.71 and possibly 1.67.