Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The 2072.75 overnight high’s reaction down reached 2065.50. Its pre-open recovery to 2070.50 is a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the reaction down. That’s the minimum threshold for a buy signal. Otherwise, trending down through the open would become vulnerable to inverting the morning’s rally signal.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcrcwcp
The First Trade… Follow-through.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open maintained a gap up above Tuesday’s highs, after Tuesday’s buyers had failed to gain traction for their efforts. This setup didn’t require extending higher immediately, but at least eventually. So, after reacting down from 2052.00 resistance to await the FOMC from unchanged, the rally resumed up to 2068.75. Buyers barely gained traction, and a bullish WedEX triggered.
Overnight action’s new info…
Backing-and-filling down to 2056.00 greeted Europe’s opens back at 2062.50. That firming became a rally to fresh highs attacking 2073.00. That’s now reacting down to test this morning’s 2069.25 bias-up signal as support.
If, then…
Trending higher this morning is likely since yesterday afternoon’s buyers gained traction for the day’s efforts. Gapping up is at risk of prematurely fulfilling the signal and inverting it, but that risk lasts only through the open. Regardless, not gapping down avoids inverting the bullish WedEX signal.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2070.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2069.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2064.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2078.25 | 2069.25 |
| …would target | 2084.50 | 2075.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2066.75 | 2057.75 |
| …would target | 2059.50 | 2050.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s high ultimately reached 2068.75. The close dipped modestly to 2064.75. Every prior high that was tested along the way was recovered — no prior high’s test was rejected. After two consecutive trending days, that is a bullish WedEX.
Probing a prior high and closing back under it would have formed a passively bearish WedEX. That signal could be sent by proxy, gapping down Thursday under two prior highs.
A little bit of how that effects the bigger picture, along with other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjpxyk
This evening when you can’t access the intraday chaRTroom platforms, here’s the OmniView link (we’re switching to it exclusively soon, so please confirm you can access it easily):
https://v7.omnijoin.com/join?dn=srt1
Pre-close View… WedEX will love this.
Big blip-down meets huge surge, and follow-through.
The open’s setups were fairly predictable, if not predicted before yesterday’s close. Testing 2052.00 early would find trending unlikely with the afternoon’s FOMC”s looming. The balance of the open trended back down to 2037.50.
Also expected was the lack of action ahead of FOMC. A last-minute break higher to 2048.00 was labeled as weak-handed, and the knee-jerk reaction to FOMC spiked down to 2031.00.
And spiked back up.
Having maintained the gap up above yesterday’s highs, FOMC was being greeted from a position of strength. The path to fresh highs wasn’t known, only its resolution. Room for noise above 2052.00 was touched at 2055.50. A drop to 2040.00 trapped a sell signal before reversing up to 2062.75 as Yellen’s Q&A got underway. Now fresh highs are testing 2064.00.
Assuming that no sudden selling were to emerge before the close, this action will not trigger a bearish WedEX. Closing above 2063.00 would trigger a bullish WedEX, so long as Thursday’s open doesn’t gap under 2052.00. None of which influences Thursday, or Friday morning. But it does suggest trending higher into and out of the weekend.