Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The initial FOMC reaction momentarily pierced Tuesday’s low, but didn’t trend down — and didn’t rally, either. The corrective drop remains intact,
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing above the 1070.00 buy signal soon reacted down sharply on Wednesday’s FOMC statement to attack 12060.00. Its reaction recovered to probe back above 1070.00. But the signal still requires a second consecutive higher close to confirm.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging Wednesday morning to probe 14.10 resistance didn’t react down much after the FOMC statement, which was largely recovered through the close. The gap back down to Tuesday’s close and a new low close remain outstanding.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A momentary knee-jerk reaction down under 153-30 was reversed back up into positive territory, still having potential for a corrective bounce to 155-29 about a half-point higher.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s test of 38.88 was rejected back under 36.70 Wednesday, and even under 36.25, to confirm a retest of the 35.45 low remains likely.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing under the 1.80 target overnight tried reacting up Wednesday. But the bounce reversed down to put into play 1.72-1.75.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 17, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: One day following the FOMC decision is all but assured not to range narrowly. Two high-profile and influential reports help to ensure that. The pre-open Philly Fed is the only Fed survey that is influential to price action. Reactions to pre-open report tend to be duplicated by post-open reports, like the LEI.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2053.75 | 2044.75 |
| …would target | 2060.00 | 2051.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2044.00 | 2035.00 |
| …would target | 2034.25 | 2025.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Optimism exceeded.
Opening spike up begins trending back down.
The open was greeted at the 2048.00 bias-up target. A spike up almost immediately tested 2052.00. The gap up above yesterday’s ~2046.00 high was maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. So, reacting down should prove only temporary.
In fact, reacting down has been relentless and substantial.
2046.00 and 2048.00 gave way as support. Yesterday’s range was probed, as low as 2039.00. This being a bias-up environment, its lower-end should be defined by the 2041.00 bias-up signal. Which is being probed as support.
Bouncing should test 2046.00. Perhaps even the 2048.25 opening print. Its retest from below is all but required, now that yesterday’s range has been probed from above.
Retesting the opening print and already trending down into FOMC can neutralize its attraction above. Not yet neutralizing that attraction above would greet the FOMC news from a position of strength.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight pullback from 2050.50 is trying to recover off of 2044.00. Ranging around the 2048.00 bias-up target is greeting the open. Gapping up above yesterday’s ~2046.00 highs is possible. Despite not gaining yesterday, resuming the rally is possible. Extending up to 2052.00 is possible.
But nothing is required. Even gapping up and initially extending higher would remain vulnerable to reversing down — but much, much less so if bias-up is renewed above its 2048.00 bias-up target at 10:15.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpsyrw