Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
A new low close into the weekend is not impossible to recover from. But not immediately. Not durably. Not without doing more damage to the chart first. A bottom here would be considerable as unlikely as that seems. Meanwhile, the downleg seems vulnerable to extending since current news is so scary. Ever the contrarian.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxsrpjb
I’ll send links overnight to the Saturday Review.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2019.00 | 2009.50 |
| …would target | 2024.75 | 2015.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2005.00 | 1995.50 |
| …would target | 1999.75 | 1990.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN. TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNALS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Fallen and trying to get up.
Late break lower about to meet position-squaring.
Firming from the noon hour’s exit had bounced 11 points to attack 2015.00. The bias environment exit was a little lower, back at the afternoon’s 2009.50 bias-down signal. That’s where the noon hour was entered, too.
It was similar in principle to this morning’s ranging. That was certainly wider, but it also rejected the support test by delaying a recovery. The bias environment exit delayed recovery from testing 2009.50. And it also produced a new downleg.
Now that setup’s 2000.25 target has been met and probed down to 1998.50. A reaction up to 2005.00 is trying to extend even 1 tick higher to confirm its return underway to 2009.50.
That’s taking awhile, and fresh lows can’t be dismissed, if only to retest the low’s oversold RSIs. And possibly to slide more sharply into the weekend.
Livestox Recording Dec 11, 2015
The webinar broadcasting software would not initiate, so I recorded a Livestox with the stock requests that were made to the blog. They are addressed in the order below. Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
SPX — Ongoing decline has reached the precipice.
USO — The potential for a bottom.
GLD — 1074 in the underlying is relevant.
XAU — Is there a Descending Triangle and false break?
SIL SLVP — Is this the beginning of the end, or end of the beginning?
GPRO — Tax loss selling is creating a January Effect candidate.
TWTR — Tax loss selling is creating a January Effect candidate.
FEYE — Tax loss selling is creating a January Effect candidate.
SUNE — Probably less of a January Effect candidate than suspected.
CARA — Monitoring for a new pattern since bounce target met.
AMMJ — Making a break from its Cup & Handle pattern.
GWPH — Fresh low now makes the next surge credible.
TRTC — New lows targeted.
INSY — Impressive bounce from the recent negative news reaction.
SPRWF — 3rd day surge missed, but that’s not necessarily bearish.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rather than extend the corrective pullback any deeper first, Friday’s bounce filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s 1.1020 close. This is more suggestive of topping, so that the next decline is durable. Rejecting a probe above Wednesday’s high would have been more bearish, and still could be.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sliding sharply to attack 1061.50 support from Thursday’s close under 1074.00 was reversed up sharply to test 1077.77. Now a recovery is even more dependent on holding 1074.00 as support, if not also there being no delay to extending up through 1077.70.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap down was within the prior range, but that didn’t prevent extending to fresh lows intraday. The pattern was not very responsive to Gold’s recovery, ending under prior lows. Its downside risk is in being confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Monday.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Delaying and backing-and-filling from attacks on the 156-12 target better enabled its eventual test to extend through it Friday. The breakout is next targeting 157-22 so long as pullbacks hold 157-04 as support. Closing under 156-15 would reverse the trend back down.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down overnight to test the 36.25 target wasn’t rejected to close back above 36.70, which would have sealed a bottom. But the new low at 35.35 into the weekend reflects excessive pessimism when there is often a geopolitical risk premium. It is not quite a second consecutive lower close, but it is at least a breakout.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two consecutive lower closes into the weekend now require at least an eventual third lower close.