Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… More last gasps.
Bouncing out of the noon hour.
The post-open ranging had expended a lot of energy up to 2022.00. It succeeded in preventing the overnight decline from following-through under 2012.00.
A surge tested 2025.00, too late to have a bullish impact. Instead, it stretched the rubber band, which snapped back down to 2003.75 at the noon hour’s low.
Coming within 3 ticks of the 2003.00 bias-down target no longer requires its test. It would not become “unfinished business below” if left outstanding.
If it is signaled. Actually, it did barely. The 2009.50 bias-down signal WAs being overlapped within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window to invoke the grace period . It wasn’t recovered through 1:30, so this is a late bias-down environment.
The trek to fresh lows remains intact. Nothing prevents trending under the 2003.00 target. Exiting the bias environment under it could prevent recovering.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 14, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No reports are due Monday, which isn’t much more quite than the week prior to it.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2031.50 | 2022.00 |
| …would target | 2036.75 | 2027.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2019.00 | 2009.50 |
| …would target | 2012.50 | 2003.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Getting a little too comfy down here.
Big gap down stays down.
The pre-open slide to 2012.25 reacted up into and out of the open to 2022.00. Just 3 ticks higher would have signaled the overnight decline was being reversed back up.
Instead, a reaction down ultimately extended to fresh lows at 2011.25. That also reacted up to touch 2022.50. Ranging there lasted too long to be considered as rejecting the decline.
One last gasp up to 2025.50 has been reversed down to 2012.25. Its next lower attraction is to retest the low. But the pattern’s purpose is to resume the overnight decline.
This has been a quite an open. The overnight slide is essentially validated by having delayed its rejection. As I discussed pre-open, Fridays have greater vulnerability to trapping an overnight move. But that window had to be exploited early, or else not at all.
Having dropped so much so quickly, already expending a lot of selling pressure, the slope need not steepen into new lows. But it should behave in a relentless way on the way down to 2009.50 and 2003.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Thanks to all for testing the OmniJoin meeting software. It seems to do everything we need. We’ll use it for tomorrow’s Saturday Review and next week, while still offering a back-up before migrating to it entirely.
First Trade’s blog post discussing a consolidation at 2024.00-2030.50. That formed a Descending Triangle, which broke lower on econ reports, dropping to 2020.75. A big bounce up to 2029.00 proved to be too much, too soon. It has resolved down even more substantially, now sliding sharply to 2012.00. Could that be too much, too soon, too?
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxykrb