Posts by Rod David
Correction: Anymeeting link fixed.
Here are the correct links to today’s chaRTroom:
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
The First Trade… Last chance for gas.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s opening bounce was retraced entirely, as deeply and as late as possible without reversing the trend down under 2036.00. It was rewarded with a rally to test 2054.00. That bounce was retraced almost entirely, also as deeply and as late as possible without reversing the trend down under 2040.00. Its reward was a rally to test 2058.00. Coincidental to campus shooting headline, a pullback limit’s violation resulted in sliding back down to the noon hour’s 2040.00 low through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Instead of extending, the late plunge was retraced 38.2% to attack 2048.00. Ranging gingerly flat-to-lower tried bouncing at Europe’s opens, but there were no more rewards — only consequences. The first reaction down probed fresh lows attacking 2036.00. Its bounce resolved down sharply lower to 2024.00.
If, then…
Trending down post-open on Fridays can get out of hand with two days of illiquidity fast-approaching. Gapping down significantly can over-compensate, and reverse back up immediately. But that window of opportunity is brief. Retesting Tuesday’s ~2027.00 low was likely eventually. Its retest is likely to include 2022.00, which is now being attacked. Recovering both of their tests through the open would be the most reliable recovery setup — yet still vulnerable to resuming the decline.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2027.25 would be likely also not to recover the 2033.00 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2036.50 would be unlikely to renew the bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2055.75 | 2046.50 |
| …would target | 2062.50 | 2053.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2048.25 | 2039.00 |
| …would target | 2042.25 | 2033.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Was it, or wasn’t it? Only its hairdresser knows for sure. Specifically, was Thursday’s last-hour 10-point plunge from 2058.50 the exacerbated reaction to a non-event (college campus shooter spotted)? Otherwise, it was rejecting the bias environment exit’s breakout above 2052.00 as being false.
The alternative to closing above 2052.00 was to close under 2040.00. But 2040.00 held its last-minute test. If the plunge will be reversed, then it will be reversed overnight to gap up Friday above its 2058.50 origin — forming a “session-long rally” setup. Only the slightest opening weakness would confirm the plunge is extending down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxykyb
Here’s the new OmniJoin version, all configured for us to test tonight. The other two are unavailable until the morning: CLICK HERE.
Pre-close View… The recovery hits a snag.
Surge to fresh highs suddenly collapses.
A noN-bias environment usually sucks volatility out of the market, and this afternoon’s was little different. Still testing the 2048.75 bias-up signal at 1:20 and at 1:30 didn’t resume rallying until the bias environment was within view of lapsing. That produced a 9-point surge to 2058.00.
Then things got weird.
Despite violating the pullback limit by dipping to 2054.25, the surge resumed almost immediately and probed a fresh high. No accumulative pattern had formed in the interim, so that was weak-handed and vulnerable to failure.
No kidding.
The failure has extended down considerably, attacking 2043.00. That might have found support, and back above 2047.00 could launch a recovery targeting a close above 2052.00. There is otherwise room back down to 2041.00, or else 2039.00.