The First Trade… Last chance for gas.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s opening bounce was retraced entirely, as deeply and as late as possible without reversing the trend down under 2036.00. It was rewarded with a rally to test 2054.00. That bounce was retraced almost entirely, also as deeply and as late as possible without reversing the trend down under 2040.00. Its reward was a rally to test 2058.00. Coincidental to campus shooting headline, a pullback limit’s violation resulted in sliding back down to the noon hour’s 2040.00 low through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Instead of extending, the late plunge was retraced 38.2% to attack 2048.00. Ranging gingerly flat-to-lower tried bouncing at Europe’s opens, but there were no more rewards — only consequences. The first reaction down probed fresh lows attacking 2036.00. Its bounce resolved down sharply lower to 2024.00.

If, then…
Trending down post-open on Fridays can get out of hand with two days of illiquidity fast-approaching. Gapping down significantly can over-compensate, and reverse back up immediately. But that window of opportunity is brief. Retesting Tuesday’s ~2027.00 low was likely eventually. Its retest is likely to include 2022.00, which is now being attacked. Recovering both of their tests through the open would be the most reliable recovery setup — yet still vulnerable to resuming the decline.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2027.25 would be likely also not to recover the 2033.00 bias-down target by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2036.50 would be unlikely to renew the bias-down signal.