Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight test of this morning’s 2046.50 bias-up signal has reacted back down to 2036.00. Gapping up above 2040.00 is not being threatened. Immediately trending up through yesterday’s late 2042.75 high could still suggest that buyers were retaking control. Otherwise, an eventual retest of yesterday’s 2027.00 area lows remains likely.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwxzsy
The First Trade… Rolling forward.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s volatility was legendary. Wednesday’s opening gap down to 2046.50 (basis Mar) quickly signaled a rally above 2049.25. The 2068.25 bias-up target was met and held at 10:15, and later extended momentarily to 2071.75. The rally was unlikely to hold because its origin was too shallow. But its 2065.00 sell signal was extremely productive, probing the open’s lows by noon, and extending down through the noon hour to test and retest 2027.00, 45 points off the morning’s high. A late bounce to 2042.75 was retraced back into the afternoon’s range under 2035.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late rally’s retracement was recovered and its 2042.75 high held as resistance into Europe’s opens. A probe of fresh highs up to 2046.75 never extended, and ranging around yesterday’s late high back down to 2038.50 is now breaking lower.
If, then…
Quarterly expiration is next Friday, so the front-month rolls forward at this morning’s open from December to March. Their spread is an 8 point discount, meaning that the pivotal 2048.00 basis Dec is now 2040.00 basis Mar. And the likely objective to retesting yesterday’s ~2027.00 lows is 2022.50. Any lower would target 2019.00 and 2014.00 — all so long as 2040.00 isn’t recovered, which could effectively end the decline.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2042.75 would be likely to trigger the 2040.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2037.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2049.50 | 2040.75 |
| …would target | 2055.25 | 2046.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2038.75 | 2030.00 |
| …would target | 2032.00 | 2023.25 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL ES IS BASIS MAR |
FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday afternoon’s bias environment ranged narrowly, 4 points either way of 2042.00 (Dec). A last-hour surge tested 2048.00 resistance up to 2050.50. But 2048.00 held as resistance, pushing back down to 2042.00.
Wednesday’s 2035.00 (Dec, 2027.50 basis Mar) support is likely to be retested. It’s not required, but there’s an attraction down to 2030.50 (Dec, 2022.50 basis Mar) . Isolating its test to the overnight, or the open, or even to the morning’s bias environment, would enable the balance of the session to rally.
Meanwhile, having failed to gain traction Wednesday, gapping up Thursday would serve by proxy, and avoid fresh lows.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfjsjy
The new Omnijoin configuration will be made available again this evening, and I’ll post its link in the chaRTroom if you want to try it then. Meanwhile, monitor overnight Globex trading at:
non-xp ilinc
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s bounce was duplicated Wednesday by gapping up through 1.0900 and probing a fresh high above 1.1040. The shallow interim pullback and consecutive gaps up suggest the retest of last week’s high will hold and reverse back down more substantially, instead of trending up.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday above 1077.70 to test 1085.00 was reversed back down to Tuesday’s 1070.00 opening gap down. The close was trying to recover 1074.00, keeping alive the upward momentum.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Reacting up Wednesday from Tuesday’s dip back down to the original 14.10 buy signal was itself retraced, after attacking 14.35 resistance. Back above 14.35 would be bullish.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing Wednesday well under the 154-12 pullback limit down to 153-24 was nonetheless recovered intraday back into positive territory up to 155-25, still targeting a fresh high at 156-12.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting favorably to Wednesday’s EIA report up to 39.00 was only temporary, as unfinished business remained outstanding below at Tuesday’s 36.71 gap down. Already attacking it Wednesday to within 20 cents instead of extending higher reflects a lot of pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pattern isn’t greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, still hovering off of the lows. But no “unfinished business below” remains outstanding.