Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… A little too comfy.
Ranging sideways at the lows.
Since testing and retest 2035.00 — to within 3 ticks, and then by 3 ticks — a bounce had room up to 2048.00 just as noise. Eventually only 2046.00 was touched, and only momentarily.
Perhaps stopping pessimistically short of its potential is the most bullish observation about today’s decline. From a contarian perspective, that reflects caution among buyers. There wasn’t much of that at this morning’s 2079.75 high.
That contrarian view suggests more have already sold, and will be less able to apply downward pressure to the market. This doesn’t mean sellers are done. So long as 2048.00 isn’t recovered, a fresh low remains possible, targeting 2030.50. But it would be vulnerable to recovering.
Otherwise, extending under 2030.50 would next target 2027.00 and 2022.00.
Mid-day Update… When is a rally, not a rally?
DON’T FORGET: I’m away today between 1:30 – 3:15 ET.
A runaway rally this morning wasn’t likely. The immediate surge’s template did kick-in, and it was very productive. The 2050.00 pre-open low rallied 30 points to attack 2080.00.
None of which changed that the origin’s timing was early. Again. Yesterday’s was late and this morning’s was early. Both were retraced entirely.
Actually, this morning’s doomed rally was reversed.
Besides its timing, this morning’s rally was doomed for originating above 2048.00. Now, without ever having put into play 2048.00, its break has extended down to with 3 ticks of the next lower support of 2035.00.
That low was met with the noon hour having elapsed 61.8%. Reversals there and then tend to hold. That is, they tend to hold a retest, especially if RSIs were to diverge positively. Already attacking 2044.00, a bounce has room up to 2048.00. Not holding the low’s retest — down to 2030.50 — would next target 2027.00 and 2022.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 10, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s BOE monetary policy is relatively high-profile, more so in this environment, but rarely does it influence price action. Jobless Claims has become more high-profile than influential, too. But the 30-year auction is much more influential to price action and lower-profile.
*BOE policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2063.75 | 2062.50 |
| …would target | 2068.75 | 2067.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2053.75 | 2052.75 |
| …would target | 2049.25 | 2048.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bottom’s in.
REMINDER: I’m away from the screens today between 1:30-3:15 ET… back for the final hour..
The pre-open dip to 2049.75 held its test of yesterday morning’s lows, greeting the open at 2054.50. Recall that was a preliminary level noted in the First Trade blog post. Recovering it or not through the open would at least be predictive of the bias-down signal.
2058.25 was another preliminary level, and it was also tested during the opening 15 minutes. Its first reaction down was brief, held 2054.50, and reversed up sharply to 2069.00.
The opening surge’s template played out as much as it did yesterday. The only difference was its low’s timing, this time being pre-open instead of post-open. But their similarity is their Achilles heel — the setup should launch almost precisely at the opening tick.
This morning’s surge, unlike like yesterday’s, isn’t done. The 2074.25 bias-up target was met and held, but is now being probed to attack the 2080.50 renewed bias-up target. A pullback to 2065.00-2066.00 is possible, regardless of the potential for extending higher this afternoon, if not also because that upside potential would benefit from the refueling.