Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Of course! Omnijoin upgraded our version yesterday. It’s not very different from the one we’ve been testing, but just different enough that I’m not comfortable relying on it exclusively this morning. We’ll test it Monday and Tuesday nights, and then begin migrating to it intraday.
Soooo… The usual links for this weekend’s Saturday Review are listed below. Be sure to join us at either link by 9:30am ET.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, which this week’s volatility has made especially interesting. Then we’ll review any stock charts that you request.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2093.75 | 2092.50 |
| …would target | 2099.25 | 2098.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2081.75 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2075.75 | 2074.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Did Friday’s rally finish correcting the week’s earlier plunge, so that the decline could resume? Or, were relevant levels recovered that invalidate the decline, and allow the rally to resume? A little of both, actually. Which is why this weekend’s Saturday Review will be focused on what immediate price action Monday can differentiate between the two paths, the bigger picture, and to review any chart requests you may have. I’ll send the meeting’s link that morning.
Friday’s action was reviewed with other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfysyhj
Pre-close View… Room for one more?
Probing fresh highs into the final hour.
Sound familiar? The 2082.00 bias-up target had been exceeded to renew the bias-up signal, but its 2088.00 renewed bias-up target held its test.That could describe this morning’s open.
Differing from this morning was the afternoon bias environment. Rather than extend higher anyway, it has ranged sideways between 2083.50-2088.50.
But now the bias environment is lapsing. And it’s lapsing at or above all prior timing window highs. That’s bullish, and usually resumes trending. Especially on Fridays, whose final hour is extremely vulnerably to squeezes.
Already, fresh highs are being probed up to 2091.25. And there’s room up to 2098.00. Probing fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would make 2098.00 even likelier. This much potential reward makes it compelling to be exposed to the potential for being whipsawed back under 2087.75.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s dip still has room down to 1.0770 as a normal correction of Thursday’s surge, without reversing the trend down.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gold’s gap up from 1062.00 Friday was retested from 1071.00 after the payrolls report, but it was recovered and extended to test 1083.00. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm the trend has reversed up.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday above the 14.10 buy signal extended sharply higher intraday to test 14.60. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a new rally leg is underway.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s initial weakness stopped 4 ticks short of fully utilizing the room for extending Thursday’s plunge down to 151-08. Its reaction to payrolls reversed up sharply to test 154-00. That was a lot fast than anticipated, so a corrective dip to 152-18 wouldn’t be surprising before recovering 154-14 on the way to 156-12.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Official news from OPEC triggered a gap down that spent Friday ranging choppily around Wednesday’s lows. Holding the test and closing above Thursday’s 41.75 high would now launch a new rally leg.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow sideways ranging Friday followed Thursday’s EIA reaction which wasn’t greeted from a position of strength.