Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 7, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s calendar isn’t really busy or influential, except for the late-morning Fed speaker who has a reputation for talking up the market.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1077.50 | 2076.25 |
| …would target | 2083.25 | 2082.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2067.25 | 2066.00 |
| …would target | 2062.25 | 2061.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Mid-day Update… The trend isn’t unfriendly.
opening rally extends. And extends.
Still overlapping the 2065.00-2066.00 renewed bias-up target at 10:15 prevented triggering a doubly-renewed bias-up signal. But it’s still a bias-up environment. And it was extended up to 2078.00.
The morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour on Fridays. But a relatively shallow pullback can still develop. Its objective would be 2067.50, which could become deeper, but probably not reverse the trend back down down.
Even if a pullback is only shallow, resuming the rally today is not assured. Marginalizing sellers doesn’t necessarily create a vacuum that sucks in buyers. And RSIs aren’t overbought at the current high, so it doesn’t require a retest.
But if the rally were to resume today, then its objective would be to test 2082.00. Otherwise, just a normal deeper pullback would likely hold the 2058.00-2059.00 area.
Post-open Review… Out of the woods.
Pre-open dive is retraced by the open, reversed through it.
Payrolls had triggered an 8-point surge to retest the 2062.75 overnight highs. Its reaction down was exacerbated by OPEC news that sent Crude Oil down. But a pre-open test of 2047.75 sent price back up to greet the open at this morning’s 2053.50 bias-up signal.
Triggering the 2056.50 buy signal extended higher to and through the overnight highs up to 2069.75. Its reaction down to 2063.00 has been ranging around the 2065.00-2066.00 renewed bias-up target. This is a bias-up environment, whose renewed target has been met — narrowly missing a doubly-renewed bias-up.
Overbought RSIs at the 2069.75 high require its eventual retest, which should include 2070.50. Avoiding its retest would further suggest that any other pullback will recover. Meanwhile, its retest isn’t precluded from extending higher than 2070.50.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Payrolls triggered a surge back to the 2062.75 overnight highs. It reacted back down to 2056.50, which was the target of yesterday’s late buy signal. The pre-market Tour began there, but our discussion of how to trade it was soon rendered moot as the reaction down extended to test 2047.00.
Okay, Plan B…
Exiting the opening 15 minutes above 2056.50 would be likely to trigger the 2053.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Meanwhile, consider 2047.75 a preliminary indication for the opening 15 minutes of volatility. More so, its recovery after testing this morning’s 2044.75 bias-down signal would trigger a buy signal. I’
ll try to identify a sell signal higher than 2047.75 if the 2053.50 bias-up signal holds a test, first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmmpjbm