Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Not for lack of trying, deux.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s pre-open bounce from 2072.00 had attacked 2088.00, but the 2082.00 open was already resuming the overnight slide from 2095.00. It extended down to 2065.00 through the bias timing window, and then to 2056.00 through the noon hour. Oh, and down to 2040.00 through the afternoon bias environment. The final hour didn’t extend down, so the decline did not gain traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Firming above 2047.50 into Thursday’s close soon tested 2057.50. Eerily relentless narrow ranging finally broke higher into Europe’s opens. Yesterday’s bias environment high was attacked to within 3 ticks at 2062.75. Sideways ranging quickly resumed, albeit more choppily
If, then…
More overnight excessive optimism ahead of this morning’s Employment Situation report? Wednesday afternoon’s bias environment high was touched overnight before plunging into yesterday’s open. Last night’s bounce to Thursday afternoon’s bias environment high seems to set the same stage. Knee-jerk reactions are likely after the news. But the open must establish some relevant recovery to avoid melting down again into the weekend.
First Trade…
Preliminary indications aren’t considered ahead of Employment Situation reports.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2054.25 | 2053.50 |
| …would target | 2059.25 | 2058.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2045.50 | 2044.75 |
| …would target | 2039.25 | 2038.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s bias environment exit was overlapping 2045.00. The final hour was entered above it, so sellers didn’t gain traction. Oversold RSIs at their 2040.00 interim dip requires a retest. And that retest is likely to visit 2035.25.
Sellers can regain traction by gapping down. So, unless that lower low is tested by gapping down, its test could be rejected to end the decline. The decline can end for awhile without even retesting the 2040.00 low, and instead gapping up above Thursday afternoon’s 2063.00 high.
Friday’s Employment Situation report would have to find Thursday’s decline oversold in order to react up durably pre-open. The more bullish path higher would visit the fresh lows, first. Of course, with the weekend bearing down, that would risk extending down even more sharply through the open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyspym
This evening, to monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom just CLICK HERE.
Pre-close View… That’s gonna leave a mark.
Relentless slide is teasing at a bounce.
The afternoon’s 2060.00 bias-down target was being overlapped at 1:20 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. That didn’t change whether it was still a bias-down environment. Despite not being required, the decline extended down to 2040.00.
Now a bounce is testing resistance at 2048.25. That’s also a buy signal. Triggering it would marginalize sellers for the day, and target a bounce to 2056.00.
But oversold RSIs at the 2040.00 low want to be retested, and today is fine with them if the bounce isn’t extending higher. Their retest’s next lower objective is 2035.25.
Livestox Recording Dec 3, 2015
Thursday’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
INSY — Reacting to a negative article, after having tested 34 resistance. Potential to resume the rally and extend to its 37 objective, so long as 30.40 holds as support.
SPX — Was on-track for resuming the rally to new highs when California’s incidents were reported. That has shaken the market, and it is searching for a lower level to try launching a new rally leg.
AMMJ — Continues to be my top pick in the Cannabis sector, as it is still forming the handle of a Cup & Handle pattern. Pullbacks must hold .12 to maintain the pattern.
XXII — Needs to recover .45 soon to avoid launching a new downleg.
LXRP — Potentially forming a Double Top, the recovery can’t afford much more of a pullback, if any, before resuming its rally.
CARA — Fresh recovery highs are likely so long as 13 holds as support. But preferable entry is on that test or its recovery.
GWPH — Would only buy strength that is high-volume, and then not waste time getting long. Otherwise, still looking for a fresh low.
SUNE — By target met at lows, vulnerable to tax loss selling pressures producing a momentary fresh low.
AMBA — Not greeting earnings news from a position of strength.