Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… Big moves, and no slowing down.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Recent tests of prior lows and Wednesday’s bullish pivot reversal created very fertile ground for Thursday’s ECB monetary moves. Recovering 1.0650 on the way to 1.0945 may be a one-day wonder, but a pullback has room to 1.0750 without reversing the trend back down.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s reaction to the ECB statement was relatively muted for being at its trend lows but having neutralized all attractions below. So the test of 1061.50 reversed back down to 1053.00. The afternoon did recover to end the day retesting 1061.50, more credibly, but still needing follow-through Thursday.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The reaction to Thursday’s ECB events surged to 14.10 resistance, whose recovery would trigger a buy signal needing only a second consecutive higher close to confirm a new rally leg underway. Its intraday reaction down was recovered entirely, so there’s little excuse to delay rallying Friday.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s close actually produced a higher close, barely confirming the prior session’s breakout. That’s dubious, at best, considering Thursday’s 4-1/4 point plunge. Support is at 151-08 and not likely to be reversed up immediately.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s breakout was retraced Thursday to probe back above the basing pattern’s 41.35, and not confirmed. That is the second step to forming a bottom, the next step now being to extend back up aggressively through the basing pattern. Any shallower strength, or simply weakening, would not be bullish.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was not greeted from a position of strength. But the morning’s fresh low at 2.13 was at least retraced back into Wednesday’s range instead of confirming its breakout.
Mid-day Update… Reset?
A new downleg may be forming after all.
This morning’s extended bias-down target at 2065.25 was met, and held. Its reaction up tested the 2076.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Choppy action ensued as Fed Chair Yellen testified to Congress.
Then the testimony ended.
Trending could hardly wait to resume. And it resumed the earlier trend. Fresh lows were tested down to 2057.00, which is now being retested during a wider consolidation. The consolidation is ranging around this afternoon’s 2060.00 bias-down target.
This is below the overnight reaction to Turkey’s shoot down of the Russian fighter jet.
Had this morning’s renewed bias-down been renewed again under 2065.25, then its objective was 14 points lower at 2051.00. A noon hour fresh low could be shallower and still recover. But the noon hour is lapsing, without rejecting its fresh lows. The next lower objective is 2051.00.
The 2060.00 bias-down target can be recovered by 1:20 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. But it would still be a bias-down environment, and vulnerable to testing 2051.00. Exiting the bias environment back above the 2066.00 area would be the next opportunity for a credible rally.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Dec 4, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report is often released in a vacuum. But this month’s release is followed by a Fed speaker in the morning, and another just before the close — the latter having a reputation for talking up the market. Meanwhile, OPEC is scheduled to meet, so Oil should be jumpy.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
10:15 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
3:45 PM ET
Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks
4:10 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2079.50 | 2078.50 |
| …would target | 2085.00 | 2084.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2066.50 | 2065.75 |
| …would target | 2061.00 | 2060.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Livestox for lunch.
Thursday’s Livestox will being at 12:15. Add stock requests to this blog’s comments section. If you cannot attend, the recording will be available later today. See you soon!
Login here by 12:15.