Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… The search for buyers.
Pre-open bounce fails to attract post-open buyers.
The pre-open drop to 2072.00 was recovered pre-open up to 2087.50. Like the overnight rally — and like recent overnight and pre-open rallies — that cycle forced the open to defend against another pullback.
Defenses were down.
Opening at the 2082.00 bias-up signal was reversed down to the 2076.50 and through the 2071.50 bias-down target. The 10:15 bias timing window was testing the renewed 2066.25 renewed bias-down target.
And holding.
This is still a bias-down environment. And spending more than several minutes probing a fresh low would likely become a new downleg targeting 2051.00.
Meanwhile, a lot of selling pressure has been expended. Even this morning’s most bullish scenario can be limited to 2075.00 or 2079.75. But that’s the scenario that would open the door to a bullish afternoon.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
That overnight rally to the 2095.25 proxy? Good times. Good times. Anyway, it crashed down to 2072.00 in a tragicomical battle between headlines. And now another bounce is testing 2087.00.
Regardless of the overnight gyrations, the window remains open to resuming the rally today. Rallying this morning should be underway soon after the open, if it will be underway this morning at all. Otherwise, back under 2084.50 and 2080.50 becomes more difficult to recover.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyspbm
The First Trade… Not for lack of trying.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s correction from testing its 2103.00 bias-up signal was exacerbated by the afternoon’s incident in California. An extra downleg originated during the afternoon’s no-bias environment down to 2075.00. That left “unfinished business above” at the untriggered 2091.00 bias-down signal, if not also its 2094.50 1:20 print. A couple of recovery attempts formed from RSIs diverging positively, but they couldn’t get past 2084.00 as it had become too late to recover.
Overnight action’s new info…
2084.00 was tested and retested until Europe’s opens triggered a break higher. Unfinished business above at 2091.00 was soon attacked to within 3 ticks. Its consolidation around 2088.00 has resolved up optimistically to 2095.25 ahead of this morning’s ECB policy statement (and Draghi’s press conference).
If, then…
Closing yesterday above 2088.00 was required for the rally’s resumption to remain likely today. The exacerbated decline came late enough to inhibit a recovery from attracting sponsorship. So, by proxy, this morning’s open can compensate for the delay by opening above the last relative high, That’s 2095.25, which has been touched. So, the open is certainly in position to resume the rally. The most bullish scenario if NOT extending higher through the open would be to spend the morning backing-and-filling to test 2084.50 as support.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2092.25 would be likely to exceed the 2088.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The renewed bias-up target is 2095.25, and exiting the open above 2099.00 would be likely to renew it, too. Exiting the open under 2084.50 would be unlikely to exceed the 2088.00 bias-up target through 10:15.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2083.75 | 2082.75 |
| …would target | 2089.00 | 2088.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2077.50 | 2076.50 |
| …would target | 2072.50 | 2071.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
We were prepared for Wednesday’s drop because Tuesday’s late surge was sponsored by weak hands. By the same token, we’re expecting Wednesday’s late drop to be recovered, because it was sponsored by weak hands, too.
Tuesday’s late surge had waited until the final hour was underway, and buyers had failed already to gain traction. Wednesday’s drop to 2075.00 originated during a no-bias environment, making its sponsorship weak-handed. So, at least its 2091.00 bias-down signal must be recovered.
The 2075.00-2076.00 low had all of the necessary elements for a durable bottom. The price area wasn’t optimal, but RSIs diverged positively and price action was accumulative, so rallying to 2088.00 and 2091.00 is likely. Recovering them would be bullish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at, while also helping again to test the new platform. Let me know about your experience… CLICK HERE.