Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Holding pattern.
Not extending higher, but not yet correcting.
Yesterday’s late surge originated too late to be sponsored by strong hands. Never mind, gapping up today could have indicated reinforcements had arrived overnight. The delay of not gapping up could have been compensated by the open trending up relentlessly to probe overnight highs.
Triggering the bias-up was the last opportunity for offsetting the other shortcomings. But the 2103.00 bias-up signal held its test. Twice.
This is a no-bias environment, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2095.50 bias-down signal. More so, this confirms the bearish influences we began discussing during yesterday’s Wrap before the close. All interim buying pressure is trapped. The actual pullback could test 2090.00, or even probe temporarily under 2088.00.
Unless the bias environment were to begin lapsing at 11:30 above its 2103.00 bias-up signal, the bearish pressure can persist into the afternoon.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The pre-open dip probed a fresh low down to 2097.50. That didn’t extend, and the open is being greeted nearly unchanged. Not gapping up, and not immediately trending up to compensate for not gapping up, would all but confirm this morning’s downward influence.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/yptvpwz
The First Trade… Still up, but looking down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Like the overnight rally’s correction before it, Tuesday’s opening surge indicated that the session was breaking the pattern of its recent range. The surge to 2097.25 was reversed down 13 points, a shock to the system needing to be absorbed through the afternoon. That prevented the rally from gaining traction, but it didn’t prevent the final hour from resuming the rally to fresh highs at 2101.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Hovering narrowly at Tuesday’s high suddenly spiked up to 2104.50. That hasn’t been extended during the 6 hours since then, as the ranging simply shifted higher. But it might be rejected, as Europe’s indexes are testing session lows. The initial range’s 2101.00 upper-end which has been support is now being pierced down to 2099.00.
If, then…
Yesterday’s action was bullish for extending the rally, but not necessarily for resuming it immediately. The late surge’s sponsorship was weak-handed since it originated after buyers had failed to gain traction. Gapping up is the only path to extending the rally without first correcting down — and probing fresh highs overnight doesn’t assure a gap up. This morning is likely to be spent probing back into yesterday’s range, rejecting any bounces. And there is no assurance of resuming the rally today, so there is no assurance of confirming yesterday’s breakout.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2098.50 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2103.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2092.50 would be likely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2104.25 | 2103.00 |
| …would target | 2111.00 | 2110.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2096.50 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2091.75 | 2090.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday morning’s 2097.25 high required a retest because both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were oversold there. But that’s the only reason why sellers weren’t taken seriously intraday. Just rallying at all post-open was a departure from the two prior overnight rallies that were reversed back down at the open. And the window has been open to resuming the rally.
The session did rally, and not by a little. But its optimism remained tempered, which isn’t bearish from a contrarian perspective. The bias environment exit and final hour entry weren’t trending above the noon hour’s high. And the 3:10-3:20 timing window only pierced a fresh high. So, a bigger rally remains possible.
Only one obstacle remains. Ironically, that obstacle is Tuesday’s very late surge to fresh session highs. Since buyers had not gained traction already, the late surge was sponsored by weak hands. It is vulnerable to correcting, at least to 2093.50 if not to 2091.00 — if at all. A correction can be avoided by gapping up Wednesday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyshmx
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at, while also helping again to test the new platform. Let me know about your experience… CLICK HERE.