Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… And a special note.
TODAY’S WRAP WILL BEGIN AT 3:30, AND I’LL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR THE SESSION’S LAST 15 MINUTES.
I’m giving the rally every benefit of the doubt for being able to resume during the final hour. This is despite the final hour’s 2094.00 entry overlapping the bias environment’s 2094.25 high, and each being contained by the noon hour’s 2094.50 high.
An interim surge before the final hour did probe fresh afternoon highs up to 2095.25. That’s not necessarily bullish, especially not if the 3:10-3:20 timing window doesn’t trend up to fresh session highs.
Overbought RSIs at this morning’s 2097.25 high still require an eventual retest. And that’s likely so long as the afternoon 2093.50 bias-up signal holds tests as support.
The likeliest alternative to rallying is still just to range sideways, essentially hovering into the close.
Daily Spot… Trending returns.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Several consecutive sessions of probing prior lows without breaking lower were possibly rejected by Tuesday’s gap up into the range that trended higher intraday. Closing Wednesday above 1.0650 would signal a rally leg underway.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday initially extended the corrective bounce to 1074.00 from Friday’s gap down, but it was retraced to close back in negative territory under 1065.00 “higher prior lows.” Now that they’ve been tested as resistance, Friday’s 1054.50 gap under all prior lows can be filled to form a durable bottom.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday to probe above 14.20 was retraced to fluctuate around unchanged, despite there being no outstanding “unfinished business below” attracting price down.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
One week of consolidating recent gains without buyers gaining any traction was nevertheless extended sharply higher by 2 points Tuesday, surging to the lower-end of 155-29/156-12 resistance. It should be tested fully so long as 155-00 now holds pullbacks as support..
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having waited too long for the recent basing pattern to launch a rally, Tuesday morning’s dip back toward the range’s 41.00 low was unable to attract sponsorship for probing lower. And a fresh low has become required prior to a credible rally.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s fresh lows were recovered back into the recent 2.20-2.25 range, still not requiring any lower close before a credible recovery could begin.
Mid-day Update… Another kind of defense.
But now, the rally is defending a gain.
[SEE A SPECIAL MESSAGE AT THE END] The steep, deep reversal of the open’s surge was proved to be an anomaly. Plunging 13 points in 30 minutes from 2097.25 to 2084.25 never even attacked negative territory. And the bias-up signal still triggered, albeit late.
The noon hour’s flat-to-higher ranging held a test of the afternoon’s 2093.50 bias-up signal. This being a no-bias environment, the range’s lower-end should be defined by its 2086.00 bias-down signal if tested. A dip just attacked 2088.00. All of which is well into in positive territory.
The rally can resume when the no-bias environment begins lapsing. It’s not required. But, just attempting to rally when 2:30 comes into view — probing 2093.50 or higher — would be increasingly likely to extend to fresh highs through the close.
Otherwise, testing 2086.00-2088.00 into the bias environment exit would still be unlikely to trend down. But its rally effort would likely be limited to retesting the 2093.50 bias-up signal.
SPECIAL NOTE: TODAY’S POST-MARKET WRAP WILL BEGIN AT 3:30, AND I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE DURING THE SESSION’S FINAL 15 MINUTES.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Dec 2, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This week’s payrolls report is preceded by a the ADP report. More than shaping expectations for the number, its reaction helps to shape expectations for sentiment. That’s already influential enough, but there’s also several Fed speakers (including Yellen), and the afternoon Beige Book to keep participants on their toes all day.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
8:10 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
11:00 AM ET
*Janet Yellen Speaks
12:25 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2094.75 | 2093.50 |
| …would target | 2100.25 | 2099.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2087.25 | 2086.00 |
| …would target | 2082.25 | 2081.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.