Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2475.50 | 2477.00 |
| …would target | 2486.50 | 2488.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2455.25 | 2457.00 |
| …would target | 2448.75 | 2450.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Giving them rope.
Pre-open warning undermines post-open surge.
Among all current influences on the market, one continues to bear repeating: 
Optimistic extremes are no more than the rubber band being stretched so it can snap back down.
A pre-open surge up to the 2490.00 bias-up signal seemed to make this case as it collapsed through the open down to 2471.50. But that was nothing.
Flat-to-lower ranging through the open eventually broke higher in reaction to a Fed speaker, surging from 2470.50 to 2508.00. Now THAT’S a rubber band stretch.
And it was short-lived, now reversed down to probe under overnight lows at 2460.50.
Bias-up had triggered — late, and after meeting its 2499.50 bias-up target. Reversing to its 2467.25 bias-down target invalidates any requirement to retrace the 2490.00 bias-up target. That said, 2490.00 would be the target of any bounce.
The bias environment is soon lapsing. A bounce limit is being violated. Potential for testing 2490.00 now depends upon delaying the decline’s resumption, which this afternoon’s WedEX intends to do.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Eerily silent night.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was the first in several sessions not to be greeted optimistically. Probing fresh lows overnight down to 2476.50 had recovered to form the basis of an Isolation setup. Bouncing to 2418.00 came too early to attract necessary reinforcements, and the setup failed. Its resolution was as bearish as it would have been bullish, trending down sharply to 2441.00 before the afternoon bias environment began lapsing. Its reaction up to 2490.00 held prior resistance, chopping wildly back down to 2456.00 through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s late wild, choppy range has essentially persisted overnight. The differential between Thursday’s cash session and futures closes was 20 points, from 2466.00 to 2586.00, as one of those wild chops snapped back up. Its snap-up continued until probing a fresh high attacking 2492.00, and then ranged sideways down to 2477.00. The relatively narrow ranging persisted until Europe’s opens, which launched a dip down to 2467.00. That’s also this morning’s bias-down signal, and RSIs diverged positively into its retest. But bouncing back up into the earlier range at 2480.50 has yet to extend any higher.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thursday’s lack of excessive or ineffectual optimism included rejecting one or two potentially bullish opening setups. Less and less hopeful influences suggests that the decline is nearing a capitulative or exhaustive phase, or at least vulnerable, just in time for Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence. And last night’s action is neither hopeful, nor has it discounted price to attract buyers. I’d still watch for bounces as the holiday illiquidity gets exponentially closer — Thursday met and held decline’s next major target at 2453.25, which evaporating volume could leverage for a counter-trend rally. Of course, evaporating volume can cut either way. And 2453.25, like the decline’s prior objectives, didn’t close above a prior relevant level (e.g. 2500.00) that might have started sealing a bottom. Anyway, trend lows don’t coincide historically with expirations. That doesn’t preclude a bounce attempt, but nothing durable is likely near-term.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2475.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2467.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2461.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2488.50 | 2490.00 |
| …would target | 2497.75 | 2499.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2466.00 | 2467.25 |
| …would target | 2455.75 | 2457.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s open was the first in several sessions not to be greeted optimistically. Probing fresh lows overnight down to 2476.50 had recovered to form the basis of an Isolation setup. Bouncing to 2418.00 came too early to attract necessary reinforcements, and the setup failed. Its resolution was as bearish as it would have been bullish, trending down sharply to 2441.00 before the afternoon bias environment began lapsing. Its reaction up to 2490.00 held prior resistance, chopping wildly back down to 2456.00 through the close.
Thursday’s lack of excessive or ineffectual optimism included rejecting one or two potentially bullish opening setups. All of which suggests that the decline is nearing a capitulative or exhaustive phase, just in time for Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence. But I would still watch for bounces as the holiday illiquidity gets exponentially closer — Thursday met and held decline’s next major target at 2453.25, which could be leveraged for a counter-trend rally.
Regardless, 2453.25, like the decline’s prior objectives, didn’t close above a prior relevant level (e.g. 2500.00) that could have started sealing a bottom. Anyway, trend lows don’t coincide historically with expirations. None of which precludes bounces, but nothing durable is likely near-term.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.