Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Maxxed out buyers, spaced out sellers.
Bounce bumped its head before falling over.
Avoiding the attraction below to 2079.00 was possible if the bias environment exit and final hour’s entry were above 2086.00 and 2088.00.
2086.00 was probed up to 2088.00, but no higher. Back under 2084.50 has put 2079.00 back into play. This morning’s 2080.25 low is being attacked now to within 1 tick.
Testing 2079.00 earlier from lower would have had plenty of time to hold and to recover. There was plenty of time to attract counter-trend sponsorship, and the last downleg had just expended a lot of energy.
The effect may not be different now testing 2079.00 later from higher. It’s a little late to attract new sponsorship, and another downleg has recently played out.
Testing 2079.00 still isn’t a requirement. But having failed this afternoon’s bounce, a fresh low is very likely.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trading flat-to-lower Monday wasn’t really lower, and certainly didn’t extend down. Any initial strength Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s break under its Descending Triangle had not extended down intraday, and it was retraced Monday. Friday’s opening gap under all prior lows still requires being filled, but now the origin of that retest suggests that a bottom will form from it.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s narrow ranging reflected its prior week’s gap down having been filled already to neutralize its attraction below. Perhaps it also reflects that the any delay to recovering is from waiting for Gold to form a bottom.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-flatter ranging ranged narrowly Monday, too high to stretch the rubber band above 156-00 for snapping back down, and seemingly not even contemplating dipping through the 154-10 sell signal.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Resuming or extending the rally could be dismissed Friday for the thinner participation, but there isn’t much excuse for the basing pattern not yet to have broken higher.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap down wasn’t rejected Monday as price ranged narrowly around it intraday.
Mid-day Update… Once more, or done?
Not yet too late to be scraping the lows.
There was no middle ground. Exiting the bias environment under 2088.00 meant exiting the bias environment at new lows. So, new lows were probed down to 2080.25 just before noon. The noon hour ranged narrowly.
The next lower objective has been met structurally, by retesting the 2082.25 overnight low. The next lower price objective is 2079.00. It’s in-play, unless the bias environment were exited above 2086.00 and 2088.00.
And now 2086.00 is being pierced. But not yet up to 2088.00.
Back under 2084.50 and 2082.75 would be likely also to test 2079.00. Its test isn’t required, and can be avoided altogether. But delaying its test until too late probably wouldn’t avoid a deeper pullback.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Dec 1, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s post-open PMI report is more influential than it is high-profile. It’s announced simulatneously with Construction spending, whch can leverage the reaction to each. The noon hour’s Fed speaker keeps market participants on edge at a time when they aren’t usually.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
12:45 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2089.50 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2095.25 | 2094.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2080.25 | 2079.00 |
| …would target | 2074.00 | 2072.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.