Posts by Rod David
Livestox Recording Nov 24, 2015
Thanksgiving is fast-approaching, which creates seasonal influences on price action. Meanwhile, incidents in Paris and Syria have triggered market sell-offs, which also have predictable resolutions. I discuss those in this Livestox recording, which is linked below. Also listed are the stocks we discussed, including requests — they’re listed in order, so my most timely picks aren’t listed first (they’re INSY and XXII). Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
Have a great Thanksgiving!
SPX
USO
GLD
GPRO
FOLD
FEYE
IMGN
AMZN
INSY
AAPL
TWTR
GWPH
CARA
CBIS
SRNA
MSRT
ECIG
MCIG
XXII
CANV
LXRP
AMMJ
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2090.50 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2095.50 | 2093.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2082.25 | 2079.75 |
| …would target | 2075.00 | 2072.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Recovering the overnight dive was not surprising. Extending down to lower lows first was possible, and at one point it was probable, but ultimately not surprising that it didn’t extend down. Recovering, and recovering so much — probing well into positive territory — not that was surprising.
But not impressive.
Was the window for a pre-holiday corrective dip leveraged by the Turkey-Russia incident, or was it hijacked? The former seems to have run its course a little too quickly to be done. And the latter would keep the door open for another dive.
Volume will start evaporating exponentially at noon Wednesday. That can help to prevent another dive from extending too deeply or for too long to recover anytime soon. Greeting Wednesday’s open already trending above prior highs would suggest instead that the pullback had ended.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/yptvvfy
This evening, please try logging into the chaRTroom to help test this replacement, and let me know your experience:
OmniJoin (by Brother)
Pre-close View… What’s the last thing you’d expect?
Big rally, deep correction, complete recovery… time to rest?
Low-volume environments are difficult to generate sponsorship for trending. They’re also difficult to generate counter-trend sponsorship. Both rules will apply more so tomorrow than today. But anticipating them may be what prevented extending down this morning.
It’s just a little optimistic — buying from so low so quickly and so much for so long. Not that the news should have been taken any more seriously than it was. It wasn’t earnings or liquidity related, so its effect was exacerbated. But the timing and corrective bias allowed more selling.
Probing fresh highs through the 3;10-3:20 timing window today (about to begin) could push the rally into Wednesday and Friday. Otherwise, just ranging flat, let alone lower, could prevent a Friday rally.
Livestox login instructions
Several requests have been posted to the blog. Be sure to add yours if you won’t be attending the session live… Small change in plans, we’re testing a different software from MegaMeeting — still accessible across platforms.