Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 26, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Happy Thanksgiving! US Markets are closed, but Globex trades normally. FTI, one of the biggest moves I’ve ever seen in Gold was during Thanksgiving several years ago. Just saying.
US Markets closed
Globex close
1:00 PM ET
Globex open
6:00 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2093.75 | 2090.00 |
| …would target | 2098.50 | 2096.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2087.00 | 2084.50 |
| …would target | 2082.00 | 2079.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stagnating already?
Beware that participation may have begun evaporating.
The open’s dive down to 2083.25 reacted back up to the 2088.00 open, which is also this morning’s bias-up signal. Ranging around it avoided triggering the signal at 10:15. But the grace period at 10:30 was still overlapping the signal.
So, this is a noN-bias environment.
An offsetting test of the 2079.75 bias-down signal is not in-play. The 2088.00 bias-up signal need not define the range’s upper-end. Often, a noN-bias environment does simply range at the bias signal, but that’s not required, either.
Regardless, I still don’t like the upside potential, having failed to gap up above prior highs. But exiting the bias environment above 2088.00 when volume really begins evaporating would be vulnerable to drifting higher through the afternoon, anyway.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight probe above yesterday’s 2091.00 highs to 2092.50 had reacted back down within the range to test 2088.00. It’s still ranging there pre-open. Yesterday’s late sell signal was 2087.50, and its repeat is possible — probably with deeper results after already bouncing overnight from its minimum target. Gapping up may be the only condition to consider long-entry.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpwwwy
The First Trade… Holding yesterday afternoon’s range.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The Turkey-Russia event triggered a gap down Tuesday to 2071.00, which soon extended back down to within 6 ticks of the 2065.50 overnight lows. Despite the seasonal timing that allowed more time to decline, the selling was limited to the morning’s bias environment. It was reversed through the noon hour back into positive territory up to 2091.00. The balance of the session ranged sideways back down to 2084.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
A late-afternoon sell signal triggered under 2087.50 had targeted at least 2082.50. Meeting it early overnight held, as did its retest. The second reaction up extended to probe above yesterday’s highs to 2092.50. That has dipped back down to test 2088.00.
If, then…
Yesterday morning’s deep pullback was optimistically brief, so it may be too soon for a rally attempt to be credible. Retesting yesterday’s lows may be unlikely, but that depth isn’t required to remain in corrective mode. The pattern remains vulnerable to spending the day backing-and-filling, trading flat-to-lower, and not trending higher. That said, trending higher from gapping up would get a benefit of the doubt for extending on volume too low to attract counter-trend sponsorship.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2088.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2084.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2088.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2077.00 would be likely to trigger the 2079.75 bias-down signal.