Posts by Rod David
Happy Thanksgiving Rally!
U.S. markets are closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday, but futures are trading on Globex for another 90 minutes. Price action is confirming expectations that the corrective window has closed, as the rally has resumed. Flat-to-higher ranging greeted Europe’s opens, which triggered a 10-point rally to fresh recovery highs. Friday’s light volume and early close creates unpredictability.
You can monitor Globex trading in the chaRTroom, which closes at 1:00pm and re-opens at 6:00pm tonight. Meanwhile, have a great Thanksgiving, and I’ll see you to discuss Friday’s likely templates at the pre-Market Tour (8:55am ET).
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2093.50 | 2090.00 |
| …would target | 2098.50 | 2096.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2087.00 | 2084.50 |
| …would target | 2081.75 | 2079.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
As much as the Macy’s Parade and bowl games on Thursday, Wednesday’s narrowly ranging session is a traditional part of Thanksgiving. Friday’s vulnerability to drift higher into its early close is also part of that tradition. But the low volume does keep the session vulnerable to reacting negatively to bad news.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhkwtb
Globex trades through 1:00pm ET on Thanksgiving, and re-opens that evening at 6:00pm ET. Monitor it in the chaRTroom, while helping to test our new webinar software. Let me know of any access issues and I’ll resolve them:
Omnijoin (by Brother)
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday was shallow enough not to trigger a new downleg. But it also didn’t confirm or resume any previous recovery attempt. The bottoming potential remains intact.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having held 1082.00 resistance again Tuesday, dipping back to the lows Wednesday makes a break lower likely. Probably not a shallow break, but potentially brief to react up sharply into a steep corrective bounce.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Neutralizing the attraction below at Monday’s gap down helps to form a bottom, even if only for a corrective rally.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still not extending higher Wednesday is still not a sell signal, which would be triggered under 154-10. The rally can extend higher meanwhile.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down slightly Wednesday was not extended and didn’t last long before bouncing back into Tuesday’s range. That must qualify as the entire correction at this stage of the pattern if its basing is going to launch a rally leg.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Wednesday was recovered again, bouncing back into positive territory but stopping at the 2.23 buy signal that would launch a rally leg.
Mid-day Update… Nowhere slowly.
Opening dip’s recovery hasn’t reversed up.
The open’s slide down to 2082.25 had reacted up to range around the 2088.00 bias-up signal. It didn’t trigger, not even late. A surge up to 2090.50 was retraced back down into the range around 2088.00.
The morning’s vulnerability to trending back down lapsed with the bias environment. Having hovered at session highs until then, the noon hour became vulnerable to drifting higher on evaporating volume.
But the noon hour only ranged narrowly sideways, at or under the morning’s high.
So, the shoe is now back on the pendulum, which has swung back toward the other foot. The primary influence continues to be evaporating volume. This range’s upper-end continues to hold. Will 2088.00 refuse to let sellers retake control?
No trending is required. That said, be careful if short at or into highs, as evaporating volume can be unpredictable. But the balance of the session is now vulnerable to drifting downward.