Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Two ways to skin that cat.
There are two paths to higher prices.
The premise was that this morning wouldn’t trend down, and that the rally can resume. Influences included light volume and participation, and greeting the open from a bounce back into the 2088.00-2091.00 range instead of above or below it
That outlook had two possible templates — either to trigger bias-up, or to hold a test of the bias-down signal which would put into play an attraction back up to the bias-up signal.
It wasn’t the former.
The open dipped under 2088.00 to test this morning’s 2084.50 bias-down signal down to 2081.50. The grace period was invoked, but recovering to 2087.00 helped to trigger a late no-bias.
So, it might be the latter.
Late bias signals are less reliable than timely signals. But thinner participation hasn’t changed. It’s only gotten more so. If the opening crowd couldn’t break the range’s lower-end, post-open sponsorship is less likely. Price can rise without sponsorship, simply for gravitating back up to the bias-up signal’s resistance.
None of which dictates remaining long regardless. But the burden of proof is on sellers, which requires pullbacks to hold 2084.50.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The open is being greeted at the lower-end of the 2088.00-2091.00 range where price has been consolidating. The resolution to testing the 2090.00 bias-up signal will tell us much about the session, if it’s even touched post-open. Until then, I’m not interested in shorting above 2088.00, and would otherwise consider shorting if bias-down were triggered… Don’t forget that today’s session closes early at 1:00 ET, and there is no Saturday Review this weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrczhwb
The First Trade… A holiday dream?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s pre-Thanksgiving session followed tradition by almost literally dying on the vine. Volume and participation evaporated, leaving no sponsorship for trending away from 2088.00. The only thing at all surprising was the limited trending attempt that morning down to 2083.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
The window for a correction having ended, the rally was free to resume. Seemingly, it did so Wednesday night. Price had firmed by ranging flat-to-higher. But Europe’s opens Thursday triggered a 10-point rally to test 2098.00. Thursday night’s Globex session retraced that surge, to 2083.25 into Europe’s opens. A bounce is ranging narrowly between 2088.00-2091.00.
If, then…
If the rally is ready to resume, then Wednesday night’s action into Thursday should be resumed today. But the open should behave as if Wednesday night’s attempt was premature, and not delay repeating it. Light volume traditionally allows price to drift in one direction or the other into the early 1:00pm ET close. Although not as likely, that could still be down if the bias-down were to trigger.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2088.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2084.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2090.00 bias-up signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 27, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s still Thanksgiving, sort of, as the market closes early… Reminder: Being a holiday weekend, there is no Saturday Review.
Early Close
1:00pm ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Happy Thanksgiving Rally!
U.S. markets are closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday, but futures are trading on Globex for another 90 minutes. Price action is confirming expectations that the corrective window has closed, as the rally has resumed. Flat-to-higher ranging greeted Europe’s opens, which triggered a 10-point rally to fresh recovery highs. Friday’s light volume and early close creates unpredictability.
You can monitor Globex trading in the chaRTroom, which closes at 1:00pm and re-opens at 6:00pm tonight. Meanwhile, have a great Thanksgiving, and I’ll see you to discuss Friday’s likely templates at the pre-Market Tour (8:55am ET).