Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2096.50 | 2094.00 |
| …would target | 2104.00 | 2101.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2086.75 | 2084.50 |
| …would target | 2081.50 | 2079.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday to test Wednesday’s low was retraced almost entirely intraday. The ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs remains intact, but recovering the last relative high above 1.0650 would allow a bottom to begin forming.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
It didn’t take long after forming a Descending Triangle for it to break sharply lower, gapping down Friday to attack 1051.50. The 1054.50 opening gap will need to be retested from above before a credible rally can begin.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Retesting Monday’s opening gap down was required before a rally would be credible. Friday’s open filled it and firmed for the balance of the session.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing higher overnight stopped short of the 156-00 resistance where a reaction down could launch a new downleg. But a shallower gap up still reversed into negative territory. Back under 154-10 would signal momentum already reversing down.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Perhaps the more lightly-attended post-holiday pre-weekend session can be dismissed for not already launching a rally. But that won’t be allowed much past Monday’s open, not if the two-week long ranging is actually a base.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip to fresh lows was the second-consecutive lower close, confirming Thursday’s breakout from a multi-session range. At least an eventual third lower close is now required before any rally can be considered credible.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The vulnerability to trending through post-Thanksgiving’s close, if not the likelihood, is based on there being no counter-trend sponsorship to reverse the prevailing trend. There wasn’t much of a prevailing trend, only a test of the bias-down signal that fulfilled its offsetting test of the bias-up signal. That recovery wasn’t extended high enough to actually be considered trending. Nevertheless, no counter-trend sponsorship emerged, as the session ended by hovering at its highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxsrbmp
REMINDER: No Saturday Review this weekend… I’ll be sending you a description of the new chaRTroom software which we’ll start adopting next week. Access to the other platforms will phase out by week’s end. Their single replacement allows:
o All devices access
o 24-hour connectivity
o Cloaked attendance
o Public chat
o MP4 recording (iPad friendly)
o WinXP compatible
…Thanks to all who have been providing me their feedback. More info to follow.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 30, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s post-open PMI isn’t the session’s highest-profile report, but it’s the most influential. Its institutional subscribers tend to push the market when it’s released 5-7 minutes earlier, which the public release then duplicates.
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Mid-day Update… Here comes the next cat.
Bias objective met. Seasonal objective in-play.
With two path higher, the market took the one more difficult. Testing this morning’s 2084.50 bias-down signal by 3 points, and invoking the grace period, ultimately held. Its offsetting test of the 2090.00 bias-up signal was met before the bias environment began lapsing. It has been probed by 5 ticks.
Historically, trending tends to persist into the post-Thanksgiving close. Not aggressively, but simply gravitating in its prevailing direction. So, there is potential for extending the recovery through 2091.00 to 2094.00 or higher.
But extending higher isn’t required. Reacting back down isn’t likely, but it’s possible. I’ll continue tracking pullback limits in the chaRTroom. There is no afternoon bias parameter to apply today.