Posts by Rod David
Livestox this afternoon
Livestox is this afternoon. We’ll be using a new host (OmniJoin, by Brother) that we’ve been testing. I’ll send out its log-in instructions later this morning. We still have Mitel as a back-up in case of difficulty, but it’s very intuitive.
Anyway, there’s not much happening in the Cannabis sector to update. But there’s plenty to discuss otherwise. The broader market is taking a hit overnight, but probably still has a higher high coming. Crude Oil is trying to bottom but finding it difficult, while Gold isn’t having much greater success.
I’ll review high-profile stocks for any relevant parameters, and also any chart requests from you. Just post them here in the blog, or join us for Livestox and ask there.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Another dive attacked the 2065.50 overnight plunge’s low to within 2 points at 2067.25. Its reaction up to 2073.00 isn’t enough to prevent another dive, perhaps also a new downleg. Opening above 2077.75-2079.00 would be the minimum recovery to deserve full confidence in avoiding another dive.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyswvk
The First Trade… Turkey shoots down a Russian jet, and a rally.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
[Thanks to all who helped test the new room last night ! ]
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Flat-to-higher up to 2093.00 Monday morning didn’t extend the bearish WedEX influence. But an offsetting test of the morning’s 2082.50 bias-down signal was put into play. That applied also to the afternoon, which plunged to 2081.25 during it no-bias environment. A retracement back to the 2088.00 bias-down signal became “unfinished business above.”
Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing to within 3 ticks of 2088.00 neutralized its attraction. Coinciding within minutes was news of a Turkish missile coinciding with a Russian jet fighter. Both were direct hits, triggering a 1-hour, 20-point plunge down to 2066.50. The last 61.8% dropped at an exponential pace from 2079.00, and has been retraced. Price action since then has ranged choppily sideways down to 2073.00.
If, then…
Was reaction to the Russian jet downing exacerbated by coinciding with two other influences? First, the market had become vulnerable already to a correction. Last week’s test of 2068.00 up to the 2082.50 prior high had opened the door to a correction. This weekend’s Saturday Review described the pre-holiday window where a correction must occur if it were going to occur at all. And yesterday’s post-market Wrap described the four consecutive sessions of probing above 2082.50 that never actually broke its resistance. Also exacerbating the market’s reaction was the news coinciding with Europe’s opens. That was a direct hit. But even if the overnight drop was exacerbated, immediately reversing the direction back up isn’t assured. Remember that bullish holiday seasonality doesn’t begin before this afternoon. Although the 2065.50 overnight low need not be retested before resuming the rally, its gravitational pull remains intact until recovering back above yesterday’s lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2082.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2077.75 would be likely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2070.50 would be likely also not to recover the 2074.75 bias-down target by 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2090.75 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2096.00 | 2093.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2083.25 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2077.50 | 2074.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)… And test new chaRTroom software
I had described 2-3 downdrafts through the open, each one shallower — or at least recovering higher — but none gaining traction or reversing the trend up. Dramatic downside finally came, but it originated during a no-bias environment, which was too late to gain traction, itself.
Neutralizing Monday’s “unfinished business above at 2088.00” would neutralize the no-bias trending. A downdraft from there, or without yet bouncing to 2088.00, could influence all of Tuesday’s session. Not reacting down from 2088.00 could drift higher by default.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrczvkk
WEBINAR SOFTWARE UPDATE: I’ve narrowed down our choices to two. We’re testing one tonight, called “OmniJoin,” sold by Brother. After testing two dozen this weekend, I’m very hopeful that this (or the subject of tomorrow night’s test) will serve our purposes. Please try it, from whatever device or operating system you can, and let me know your experience. Thanks… click below:
OmniJoin by Brother