Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Warning shot.
Afternoon plunge trying to bottom at the right place and time.
This morning’s 2082.50 unfinished business below was probed down to 2078.25. Its reaction has climbed steadily up to 2083.50.
A little too steadily.
Not already inflecting up suggests a corrective dip likely to test 2080.50-2081.25. And then back above 2082.50 could extend back up to this afternoon’s 2088.00 bias-down signal, whose retest is required.
Not holding 2080.50 could simply trend down into the close. And out of it, too. Remember that if the market intends a corrective drop before Thanksgiving, then it should be developed largely by tomorrow afternoon.
Daily Spot… Resuming the persistent trends?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing fresh lows Monday didn’t trend down, but the optimal bottoming pattern would have rallied already into the afternoon. Initial strength Tuesday would still be credible for extending higher intraday, but nothing any later would be as reliable.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending down Sunday night retested last week’s 1064.00 intraday low but not its overnight low $2 lower. The nearest buy signal in this pattern remains a close above 1082.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s drop probed fresh lows Monday but recovered above prior lows later. None of which is a buy signal, and not confirming an immediate recovery attempt would likely launch a new downleg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap down filled the gap back Wednesday’s close, fulfilling the minimum consequence to Thursday’s failed breakout. Bouncing immediately from there extended higher intraday to close again back above the 154-10 signal.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight were recovered on Saudi defensive statements. Iranian comments sent price back down, but never back to overnight lows or even under prior intraday lows. The pattern still requires a surge and then next day follow-through to avoid launching a new downleg already.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing Monday helped to set the stage for attacking Friday’s low again to form a bottom. No other setup would qualify as bullish at this stage of the pattern.
Mid-day Update… Now they sell.
It’s not expiration-related, so it’s not easily ended.
This morning’s surge to 2093.00 never extended higher. And it seemed like forever before probing back under its 2089.00 sell signal. Equally long was the time that elapsed before probing under 2089.00 actually broke lower.
In fact, this afternoon’s 2088.00 bias-down signal didn’t trigger at 1:20, triggering no-bias. Neither was it broken by 1:30 to invalidate the no-bias. So, plunging under it now to 2081.25 is “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced eventually to at least 2088.00.
Will that retest come soon? Sellers have an excuse to pause — they just fulfilled this morning’s unfinished business at 2082.50, and oversold RSIs at the 2081.25 low will doom a bounce to failure. Back above 2084.50 would start to signal that bounce underway. There’s otherwise nothing preventing a slide into the top of the hour.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 24, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The holiday-shortened week makes for a couple of busy economic reporting days. Tuesday’s GDP is high-profile but not very influential to price action. The post-open Consumer Confidence number is influential, and also informative to Wednesday’s Consumer Sentiment report.
*GDP
8:30 AM ET
International trade in goods
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MONafternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2095.75 | 2093.00 |
| …would target | 2101.00 | 2098.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2090.75 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2085.25 | 2082.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.