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Rod David – Page 1560 – If, Then… Market Timing

Posts by Rod David

Post-open Review… A different kind of bearish?

By Rod David | November 23, 2015 - 10:37 am

Overnight slide is not repeated.

Last night’s tests of the 2091.50 bias-up signal had resolved down to test this morning’s 2082.50 bias-down signal. The bias-up signal had been recovered pre-open to within 3 ticks at 2090.75.

Back under 2084.50 after the open would have repeated the overnight drop, and probably accelerated it. But the post-open dip only touched 2084.50, never triggering. Its reaction up was retraced entirely, but not another tick, also not triggering.

That’s 2-3 rounds of selling, and still no break lower.

So, another bounce has probed last night’s highs up to 2093.00. Despite invoking the grace period, the 2091.50 bias-up signal didn’t trigger at 10:30. An offsetting test of the 2082.50 bias-down signal is in-play.

That would be a 3rd or 4th round of selling.

Back under 2089.00 would signal momentum reversing down, targeting 2082.50. Printing a fresh high first would allow me to raise the sell signal. The bearish WedEX’s influence should have been aggressive by now if it were influential at all, but the post-open pattern doesn’t prevent a steep slide. Regardless, resuming the rally here is much less likely– at least, before noon.

Posted in Post-open Review, S&P

Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)

By Rod David | November 23, 2015 - 9:22 am

Crude Oil’s surge from fresh lows had triggered a 9-point recovery from ES 2082.00. That momentary probe into positive territory has slipped back down to 2085.00, and back into negative territory. We’ll know shortly whether the bearish WedEX remains influential this morning.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwxjxw

Posted in Pre-market Tour, S&P

The First Trade… Expiration follow-through.

By Rod David | November 23, 2015 - 7:59 am

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Gapping up Friday to 2088.00 and extending higher through the first hour to 2094.50 retested Wednesday night’s 2089.25 high. It also fulfilled the morning’s bias-up target. The balance of the session trended back down shallowly to enter the final hour testing 2082.00. The final hour firmed back up to 20887.00-2088.00 into the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night open surged up to 2092.50. Then almost all of Friday’s late bounce was retraced back down to 2082.00. Crude Oil had been probing fresh lows, too, but surged on news that Saudi Arabia would defend it — that triggered a surge in ES, momentarily probing into positive territory attacking 2091.00.

If, then…
If the bearish WedEX is at all influential Friday afternoon, then it should be very influential Monday morning, following the downward drift with an aggressive slide. Not sliding through the open would significantly undermine that bearish influence, and possibly point higher for the day — if not also for the week. Potentially bullish holiday seasonality ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving closure suggests that any downdraft this week must run its course by Tuesday’s close.

First Trade…
CORRECTION: Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2085.00 would be less likely to trigger the 2082.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2079.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Posted in S&P, The First Trade

The Universe, week of Nov 21 2015…

By Rod David | November 21, 2015 - 3:21 pm | 2

[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

This week brings Thanksgiving. Regardless of the sector’s performance, I truly wish all of my subscribers have more than their fair share for which to be thankful.

As for the sector, I hope it’s not “curses for taking” day. That’s difficult to avoid for anyone committed to the sector for long. And it’s only going to be more difficult with another round of tax loss selling pressures getting into gear around this time.

Toward that end, two patterns jump out as being on the precipice of a much deeper downleg. A longer-term decline is already known in CBIS. But I would also mention MSRT, which had potential to resume its rally, but its pullback is probing under critical support. I’ll note others as they appear, but don’t hesitate to ask.

Meanwhile, several issues have formed bullish patterns, some of which I’ve noted here previously. In alphabetical order, they are: AMMT LXRP, MJNA, RSSFF and XXII. One issue that seems to have risen from the dead is UPOT.

We’ll look at these during Livestox, but don’t hesitate to ask about any issue of current importance.

Marijuana Stock Universe for November 23, 2015
Reference this table during stock reactions
4-week # up: 12 12.00%
trends* # flat: 17 17.00%
# down: 71 71.00%
*The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks.
symbol support resistance 4-week trend
ACGX 0.000 0.003 down
AERO 1.000 1.950 down
AGTK 0.000 0.004 down
AMMJ 0.070 0.150 down
ARNA 1.650 2.200 down
ATTBF 0.035 0.075 flat
BLOZF 0.130 0.240 down
BLPG 0.015 0.086 down
BRDT 0.012 0.031 down
BTFL 0.002 0.003 down
CAFS 0.001 0.011 down
CANL 0.250 0.500 down
CANN 0.600 1.330 flat
CANV 0.795 1.160 flat
CARA 14.250 18.870 flat
CBDS 0.510 1.850 down
CBGI 0.000 0.005 down
CBIS 0.020 0.041 flat
CGRW 0.360 0.610 flat
CHUM n/a n/a down
CNAB 0.150 0.330 down
DEWM 0.002 0.004 up
DIGP 0.170 0.400 down
DSCR 0.000 0.025 down
EAPH 0.005 0.013 down
EDXC 0.007 0.019 down
ENCC n/a n/a down
ENDO 0.006 0.018 down
ENRT 0.012 0.026 down
ERBB 0.002 0.004 flat
ETST n/a n/a flat
EXMT 0.000 0.004 up
FITX 0.004 0.078 up
FSPM 0.000 0.250 down
FULL 2.800 3.140 up
FWDG 0.000 0.002 down
GBLX 0.210 0.320 down
GRCU 0.000 0.004 flat
GRNH 0.023 0.067 flat
GWPH 71.600 86.400 down
HEMP 0.050 0.107 down
ICBU 0.000 0.003 down
IGRW 0.000 0.002 down
IMLFF 0.100 0.180 down
INCC 0.000 0.002 down
INSY 26.000 36.000 flat
ITNS 0.001 0.005 down
KAYS 0.067 0.187 flat
LATF 0.000 0.001 down
LXRP 0.180 0.280 up
MCIG 0.017 0.030 down
MDBX 0.040 0.070 down
MDCN 0.000 0.001 down
MDRM 0.008 0.025 down
MINE 0.000 0.002 down
MJMD 0.000 0.015 down
MJMJ 0.000 0.001 down
MJNA 0.036 0.048 up
MNTR 0.310 0.620 down
MSRT 0.830 1.410 down
MYEC 0.014 0.021 up
MYHI 0.013 0.100 down
NDEV 0.016 0.053 down
NMUS 0.218 1.215 down
NRTI 0.000 0.002 down
NTRR 1.200 2.100 flat
OGRMF 0.510 0.920 up
OSLH 0.000 0.001 down
OXIS 0.009 0.019 down
PHOT 0.010 0.030 down
PLPL 0.053 0.121 down
PMCB 0.080 0.110 flat
PNTV 0.001 0.007 down
PZOO 0.001 0.005 down
QEDN 0.000 0.003 down
REDG 0.000 0.003 down
RFMK 0.000 0.002 down
RMHB (thcz) 0.075 0.013 flat
RSSFF 0.030 0.100 down
SING 0.005 0.012 down
SKTO 0.000 0.004 down
SPRWF 0.135 0.205 up
SRNA 0.074 0.120 down
STEV 0.033 0.041 down
TAUG 0.003 0.005 down
TRTC 0.082 0.118 down
TURV 0.463 0.770 down
TWMJF 1.370 1.980 up
UPOT 0.090 0.290 flat
USEI 0.000 0.003 down
VAPE 0.001 0.038 down
VAPR 0.000 0.050 down
VGPR 0.000 0.002 down
VHUB 0.025 0.048 up
VPCO 0.170 0.550 down
VPOR 0.000 0.001 down
WDHR 0.000 0.002 down
WOGI 0.002 0.008 down
XTRM 0.001 0.004 flat
XXII 1.300 1.850 up
Posted in Bigger Picture
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