Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 11/21/15) …
A decline already underway could have ended less dramatically than last Sunday’s capitulation low, which was triggered by the weekend’s horrific events in Paris. But it did end there, and it was retraced entirely at Thursday and Friday’s highs. Can it continue higher without another correction down? How deep would a correction be? What must happen to know a correction is being avoided? These were among the questions addressed during this weekend’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AAPL, TSLA, SIG, LOW, AMZN, ZOES, CSCO, CNX, NFLX, RGLD, SLW, CMG, GLW
11/21/2015 09:32:47 David B: good morning
11/21/2015 09:32:54 David B: yes
11/21/2015 09:32:55 SM: good
11/21/2015 09:33:01 steve: good
11/21/2015 09:33:15 David B: yes
11/21/2015 09:33:15 SM: yes
11/21/2015 09:33:16 steve: gm
11/21/2015 09:34:07 Mark Glezer: gm
11/21/2015 09:38:27 ljr: Gm. stocks: CSX, YELP. will watch recording later thx.
11/21/2015 09:54:18 MK: low liquidity and above 200dma means algos drift higher
11/21/2015 09:56:12 MK: i’ll wager a LOT that we test 2110 next week
11/21/2015 10:00:43 MK: yup
11/21/2015 10:00:45 MK: disonnected
11/21/2015 10:00:47 SM: audio now
11/21/2015 10:00:47 David Bennin: yes
11/21/2015 10:00:53 SM: charts now
11/21/2015 10:03:57 MK: london tube bombing did this exactly
11/21/2015 10:04:49 SM: Does it take a close below the 2042 low in order to neutralize the present likelihood of new highs?
11/21/2015 10:06:35 william: sound ok but chart frozen ?
11/21/2015 10:06:51 Mark Glezer: FROZEN
11/21/2015 10:07:09 Mark Glezer: :)
11/21/2015 10:07:10 william: lol
11/21/2015 10:08:43 Bill G: can not see your cursor
11/21/2015 10:08:52 SM: n
11/21/2015 10:08:53 Mark Glezer: no
11/21/2015 10:08:54 william: reboot
11/21/2015 10:08:54 Bill G: no
11/21/2015 10:08:58 william: I had to reboot
11/21/2015 10:08:59 MK: we can’t seet he cursor
11/21/2015 10:09:00 MK: but
11/21/2015 10:09:07 MK: you can see what you are doing
11/21/2015 10:09:10 MK: its weird
11/21/2015 10:09:43 Mark Glezer: yes
11/21/2015 10:09:45 william: y
11/21/2015 10:09:47 SM: good
11/21/2015 10:09:47 MK: GTG
11/21/2015 10:11:32 David B: in the one of the blogs you mentioned that we only had closed below one prior high but the next one would be bearish. what was that other prior high that this would not be just a correction?
11/21/2015 10:11:38 Mark Glezer: if Mon is a big down day do u think it’d be some carryover to Tue or not necessarily depending on Mon close?
11/21/2015 10:12:29 David Bennin: after 2055?
11/21/2015 10:12:44 David Bennin: we close yes
11/21/2015 10:12:56 David Bennin: when we close at at 2018?
11/21/2015 10:13:11 David Bennin: ok i’ll come back
11/21/2015 10:14:36 David Bennin: when we closed at 2018 this was still a correction in an uptrend. what level if we continued down would it no longer be a coRrect
11/21/2015 10:14:49 David B: correction
11/21/2015 10:19:24 David B: ok
11/21/2015 10:19:56 David B: ye
11/21/2015 10:19:58 David B: yes
11/21/2015 10:20:09 MK: wow we never filled that gap?
11/21/2015 10:20:18 MK: or was that gap filled at 2012
11/21/2015 10:22:04 MK: yes
11/21/2015 10:22:25 MK: oh ok
11/21/2015 10:22:29 MK: close enough
11/21/2015 10:23:02 Bill G: Off topic. Do you have any comment on NYSE not taking stop orders or GTC beginning in Feb?
11/21/2015 10:23:22 MK: Bill thats kind of a moot point
11/21/2015 10:23:24 MK: yes
11/21/2015 10:23:25 MK: 100%
11/21/2015 10:23:30 MK: almost all brokers
11/21/2015 10:23:36 MK: have systems in place already
11/21/2015 10:23:48 MK: that store it
11/21/2015 10:23:50 MK: however
11/21/2015 10:23:58 MK: it 10000000% benefits the HFT
11/21/2015 10:24:51 MK: IMO
11/21/2015 10:24:54 MK: all that will result
11/21/2015 10:24:58 MK: is more poaching of orderd
11/21/2015 10:25:02 MK: and stop runs
11/21/2015 10:25:08 Bill G: It’s curing a symtom rather than the largest customer hft
11/21/2015 10:25:26 MK: No its outwardly benefitting the HFT
11/21/2015 10:25:47 william: AAPL, TSLA, CSCO
11/21/2015 10:25:52 MK: SIG
11/21/2015 10:26:59 David B: LOW,AMZN
11/21/2015 10:27:49 Bill G: Thats my point mk. Helpint nyse’s largest customer the algoes/hft with the excuse it’s helping the retail customer
11/21/2015 10:28:16 MK: ZOES
11/21/2015 10:30:19 MK: CNX
11/21/2015 10:32:02 MK: i’m still short the “H&S”
11/21/2015 10:32:10 MK: at 149
11/21/2015 10:32:23 MK: yes
11/21/2015 10:32:41 MK: optimism?
11/21/2015 10:32:53 MK: target 120?
11/21/2015 10:32:55 MK: air poket
11/21/2015 10:32:58 MK: pocket
11/21/2015 10:33:02 MK: under 133
11/21/2015 10:33:28 MK: oui
11/21/2015 10:33:52 MK: 161.8 or 261.8 no?
11/21/2015 10:34:49 MK: 148
11/21/2015 10:34:50 MK: sweet
11/21/2015 10:35:08 MK: yeah… people are buying more diamons…..
11/21/2015 10:35:09 MK: diamonds
11/21/2015 10:35:12 MK: not
11/21/2015 10:35:21 MK: sweet
11/21/2015 10:35:33 MK: gonna double down
11/21/2015 10:36:01 MK: finally i bring an idea where you agree with me!
11/21/2015 10:36:25 MK: ok
11/21/2015 10:36:27 MK: good to know
11/21/2015 10:36:48 MK: with HD breaking out… i think LOW is on its way
11/21/2015 10:37:09 MK: Nifty 50 all over agin
11/21/2015 10:37:10 David B: earnings announced
11/21/2015 10:37:11 MK: again
11/21/2015 10:37:22 MK: chasing big cap into the close of the year
11/21/2015 10:37:22 David B: just reported
11/21/2015 10:38:56 MK: oh man NFLX i forgot
11/21/2015 10:40:38 MK: wow… you see RGLD and SLW price action… These guy have been massive leaders… to see them break makes me super bearish on gold to close out the year
11/21/2015 10:41:05 MK: sorry just RGLD
11/21/2015 10:41:10 MK: SLW still a leader
11/21/2015 10:41:19 MK: yeah
11/21/2015 10:41:22 MK: I like ZOES
11/21/2015 10:41:27 MK: even though i hate fast casual
11/21/2015 10:42:15 MK: also CMG… just because of the news
11/21/2015 10:42:23 MK: wow
11/21/2015 10:42:30 MK: well thats going in the screener
11/21/2015 10:44:36 MK: GLW
11/21/2015 10:45:50 william: Tks
11/21/2015 10:47:02 MK: just wondering
11/21/2015 10:47:05 MK: my buy is above 10
11/21/2015 10:47:12 MK: just validate
11/21/2015 10:47:24 MK: that reecks of continuation
11/21/2015 10:47:28 MK: reeks
11/21/2015 10:48:02 MK: ok
11/21/2015 10:48:04 MK: thats fine
11/21/2015 10:48:11 MK: no need to do more work on such an ugly chart
11/21/2015 10:48:35 MK: i’m a buyer at 8 if we probe new lows and bounce on volume
11/21/2015 10:48:46 MK: i still think
11/21/2015 10:49:13 MK: in the beginning
11/21/2015 10:49:23 MK: LJR said CSX and YELP
11/21/2015 10:49:40 MK: you missed CSX and YELP from the start of the show
11/21/2015 10:49:53 MK: no
11/21/2015 10:49:57 MK: you did CNX
11/21/2015 10:50:16 MK: super bullish no on NFLX?
11/21/2015 10:50:30 MK: no reason to get back into the triangle
11/21/2015 10:50:35 MK: to not probe highs
11/21/2015 10:50:55 MK: waoh
11/21/2015 10:51:02 MK: that means 170?
11/21/2015 10:52:47 MK: both
11/21/2015 10:54:27 MK: ok
11/21/2015 10:54:35 MK: The value guy in me
11/21/2015 10:54:38 MK: is screaming buy here
11/21/2015 10:55:18 MK: fractal?
11/21/2015 10:55:29 MK: head is a fractal of the larger pattern
11/21/2015 10:55:43 MK: yes
11/21/2015 10:55:52 MK: too complex
11/21/2015 10:55:53 MK: nevermind
11/21/2015 10:55:59 MK: ok
11/21/2015 10:56:29 MK: yeah i can’t get bullish metals yet
11/21/2015 10:56:40 MK: everything screams more work
11/21/2015 10:56:50 MK: and i think sub 1000 is coming on gold
11/21/2015 10:56:55 MK: and an 11 handle in silver
11/21/2015 10:58:17 MK: i’m just curious about selling puts against it
11/21/2015 10:58:20 MK: so i’m on ly concerneda
11/21/2015 10:58:22 MK: bout extremes
11/21/2015 10:58:42 MK: and people hospitalized
11/21/2015 10:58:52 MK: i guess my question
11/21/2015 10:58:58 MK: is how much support is in the 490 range
11/21/2015 10:59:06 MK: thats where i was looking to sell juice
11/21/2015 10:59:11 MK: correct
11/21/2015 10:59:28 MK: yup
11/21/2015 10:59:30 MK: 495/490
11/21/2015 10:59:33 MK: oh wow
11/21/2015 10:59:34 MK: ok
11/21/2015 10:59:38 MK: alrgiht then
11/21/2015 11:00:12 MK: ok
11/21/2015 11:00:14 MK: i hate that
11/21/2015 11:00:16 MK: i won’t trade it
11/21/2015 11:00:54 MK: so
11/21/2015 11:01:00 MK: long at mondays open?
11/21/2015 11:01:17 MK: ok
11/21/2015 11:02:04 MK: so wait for retrace
11/21/2015 11:02:10 MK: gotcgha
11/21/2015 11:02:12 MK: thanks
11/21/2015 11:02:15 MK: that was great
11/21/2015 11:02:33 David B: thanks
11/21/2015 11:02:35 Bill G: Have a good on
11/21/2015 11:02:49 william: Great, Tks,
11/21/2015 11:02:49 MK: have a good one
11/21/2015 11:02:58 SM: thx
11/21/2015 11:03:20 Mark Glezer: enjoy your weekend
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2094.25 | 2091.50 |
| …would target | 2099.75 | 2097.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2085.25 | 2082.50 |
| …would target | 2080.00 | 2077.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
It’s expiration, so it’s less predictive. But it’s still interesting to note that the afternoon’s sellers gained traction for their efforts. The bias environment exit was under the noon hour low, and the final hour entry was lower. It’s even more interesting in the context of a bearish WedEX.
A passive, late, barely bearish WedEX. Which wasn’t invalidated Friday afternoon, as price trended down — albeit gradually and stuck in positive territory. Nevertheless, that leaves the door open to trending down more steeply Monday morning.
That would suggest another detour is about to begin on the path to new highs. But will it last several days, or just several hours? That, and how deep it can dive, will be discussed in detail during this weekend’s Saturday Review… Its link will be sent later.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkmcyc
Daily Spot… Mixed energy.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s rally was denied a second consecutive higher confirming close. But Friday was still constructive to forming a bottom. Its gap down created an attraction back up to Thursday’s close, and its low filled the gap back down to Wednesday’s 1.0665 close. Closing back above the 1.0680 prior low would have been optimal, but almost any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength settled back intraday to range between the decline’s 1074.50-1082.00 target range, closing lower on the day but still potentially basing.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday night’s surge was retraced Friday back down to the range’s lower-end at 14.00.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Intraday weakness touched what had been support at 154-10 and held, but didn’t close positive, which left Thursday’s breakout unconfirmed.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initial weakness reacted up sharply intraday. Perhaps it helps to confirm that sellers aren’t being attracted to current levels. But it is also reminiscent of a last-minute risk premium for weekend geopolitical uncertainties. At least an obligatory probe of fresh lows is likely if Monday doesn’t immediately extend Friday’s bounce, for whatever reason.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Frideay fell on further consequences to not triggering a buy signal after Thursday’s EIA report. Now two consecutive closes under a multi-session range require there be at least an eventual third lower close before a recovery would be credible.