Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Drifting is done.
Barely bearish, late, passive WedEX is only flickering.
Big things often come in little packages. The disproportionality of this is extreme.
Wednesday’s close was overlapping 2082.50 prior highs, leaving it to Thursday’s open for completion of the setep. Without rallying, the signal wasn’t bullish. Dipping immediately would have been bearish. Thursday’s open ranged narrowly sideways.
Bearish by default.
Its influence might not be responsible for this afternoon having probed fresh intraday lows. It’s probably not responsible for the downtrend underway since this morning’s bias signal triggered. And its influence isn’t undoubtedly responsible from above the 2082.50 prior highs — which is still 2-3 points lower.
But now the bias environment has begun lapsing. Volatility should start expanding. Trending down under 2082.50 would be credible for extending down through the close. Entering the final hour above 2089.25 would start to suggest the session will instead rally through the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 23, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Monday’s econ reports has a track record that is especially influential to price action. But each is high-profile, including the Chicago Fed survey that rarely registers in price action.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2095.00 | 2092.00 |
| …would target | 2100.50 | 2097.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2086.50 | 2083.75 |
| …would target | 2081.00 | 2078.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Burden of proof on sellers.
The rally has accomplished a lot.
A last-minute dip within 15 minutes of the cash session open touched the 2084.50 bias-up signal. Its reaction bounced to greet the open at fresh highs testing 2088.00. A consolidation was resolved by extending up to 2093.50.
The post-open consolidation contained a higher high and higher low to form trending. The opening 15 minutes trended up. Forming this setup on expiration is often predictive of the entire session. The 2092.00 bias-up target was exceeded (barely, in a reaction down from 2094.50) through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. And more than just probing Wednesday night’s 2089.25, it is being recovered through relevant timing windows.
The burden of proof is definitely on sellers.
Contradicting that is the bearish WedEX. It’s passive, triggered late, and only by default. So, its contradiction isn’t overwhelming. And RSIs that were overbought initially are now diverging negatively.
Back under 2091.00 would start to signal at least backing-and-filling, which could test yesterday’s “lower prior highs” around 2083.00 or lower. Otherwise, extending higher today remains possible.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight surge attacking 2086.00 had been retraced entirely back down to unchanged, at yesterday’s 2078.00 cash session close. Now that has been recovered to fresh highs testing 2087.00. All of which is still under Wednesday night’s 2088.00-2089.25 highs, and not indicated to gap above it. Probing above it intraday is still possible, but still vulnerable to reversing back down and then some.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkbcpcj