Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 20, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The only econ report Friday is late-morning and has no track record for influencing price action. But it is preceded by a pre-open Fed speaker.
*James Bullard Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.00 | 2081.75 |
| …would target | 2090.75 | 2087.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2076.25 | 2073.00 |
| …would target | 2071.25 | 2068.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… First impressions can be deceiving.
Hovering in positive territory isn’t necessarily strength.
The pre-open slide from 2089.25 probed negative territory after the open. But only slightly, and only briefly, basically testing 2077.50 support. Its reaction up tested the 2082.75 bias-up signal, probing it by 1 point. Twice.
But the hesitant selling and the repeated bouncing matter less than price action at a relevant timing window.
At 10:15 the bias-up signal had held its test. This is a no-bias environment. And since a fresh low printed after 10:15, invalidating the no-bias signal requires exiting the bias environment above the pre-10:15 2083.75 high. Meanwhile, an offsetting test of the 2072.00 bias-down signal is in-play. Although not required, I would expect that to visit 2068.00, too.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally had worked its way steadily higher to probe above yesterday’s 2082.50 high up to 2089.25. And like that, it was gone. Now yesterday’s high is being probed as support down to 2079.00. That’s just 1 point under yesterday’s cash session close, but it’s the wrong direction for extending the rally. Any trending through the open is likely to extend in that direction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcrtzfv
The First Trade… Barely slowing.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s 2056.00 open was greeted back where Tuesday afternoon’s German soccer match threat had triggered a decline down to 2041.50. The balance of the morning trended up to probe Tuesday’s 2063.50 high. Reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes doubled the morning’s gain, testing 2082.50 where the prior week’s consolidation had peaked. Buyers gained traction although they were largely rewarded by the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
A shallow pullback to 2078.00 soon resolved up to fresh highs at 2085.00. That has extended to test 2089.00.
If, then…
Wednesday’s WedEX was testing a prior high, instead of exceeding it or rejecting it. Thursday’s open can serve by proxy, and maintaining a gap up would be bullish for Friday afternoon. In the interim, the rally gained traction Wednesday afternoon, and a gap up is indicated, so not rejecting it could extending higher before noon. Otherwise, the rally since Sunday night and Tuesday afternoon does allow room for inverting down without reversing the uptrend.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2089.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2088.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2085.75 would be likely to trigger the 2082.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2079.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.