Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2086.50 | 2082.75 |
| …would target | 2091.75 | 2088.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2075.75 | 2072.00 |
| …would target | 2070.50 | 2066.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The outstanding objective for this stage of the rally was 2068.00. Its test could have been avoided, but it was met, along with prior highs up to 2082.50. No overbought RSIs were left outstanding that might require a retest. The session ended with no higher objective above.
The 3:10-3:20 timing window did trend up to fresh session highs. That confirmed the bias environment’s exit above the noon hour’s high as gaining traction. (The final hour’s entry was still overlapping the bias environment’s high.) This traction tends to be rewarded by trending higher the following morning, but that’s less reliable having trended up so much already.
This being Wednesday of expiration week, the WedEX can trigger. Trending higher into the trigger is the basis for a bullish signal. Testing 2082.50 “prior highs” suggests the following session’s open may yet confirm or reject that. We’ll discuss that point a little more in the morning — it won’t be influential until noon Friday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxyvmm
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Target met in an FOMC Minute.
Eventual reaction surges to fresh highs.
I’ve been holding out for 2068.00 and it was finally met. It was probed up to 2073.25 in reaction to the FOMC Minutes. I’m monitoring the character of its test for signs of its rejection.
One of those characteristics is the simultaneous overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the high. They require an eventual retest. Its likely objective is 2074.50 (+/- 1 tick).
Another characteristic is exiting the bias environment above all prior intraday timing windows’ highs. That’s difficult to reverse down before the close. So, not entering the final hour back under the earlier 2065.00 highs should extend higher.
Dipping under 2065.00 could insert a detour that delays retesting today’s high. But a detour would be more credible if already underway entering the final hou.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday didn’t prevent probing intraday back under Tuesday’s lows. But that did create the basis for a Pivot Reversal which would be triggered by closing back above the morning’s high.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Choppy overnight ranging was relatively narrow, and Wednesday’s post-open action didn’t extend in either direction.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Wednesday probed under Tuesday’s low, which had recovered to overlap the range’s lows at the close. Closing positive would be the earliest confirmation that a bottom was forming.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Choppy action nevertheless remained within the 152-16-154-10 range which is only noise until broken.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s probe of fresh lows officially fulfilled the decline’s 39.95-40.00 target whose attack had already produced a bounce to 42.00. Just closing back above 41.05 would now start to signal momentum reversing up into an upleg.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Testing 2.41 resistance pre-open reacted down intraday to attack 2.31. Closing above 2.37 and 2.41 would be increasingly bullish.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 19, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s Philly Fed is the only Fed survey with a track record for influencing price action. The afternoon’s Fed speaker could generate a reaction, too.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
12:30 PM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET