Posts by Rod David
Livestox Recording Nov 12, 2015
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Thursday’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
SPX — Recent ongoing weakness likely has been in the context of a temporary correction.
USO — Major near-term decline target met
GLD — Major downside decline target met
INSY — Be concerned if long under 26, but otherwise not a compelling pattern
GWPH — False break from Ascending Triangle suggests one more fresh low coming which will produce by signal
CARA — Bounce objective met, not exceeded
XXII — Potential to resume the rally but not currently signaled
TWMJF, ORGMF, SPRWF — 3rd-Day Surges seem to have sucked in every speculative, weak-handed, overly-optimistic, impatient buyer. A lot of time needed to consolidate or correct.
LXRP — Price and volume patterns remain attractive
TRTC — Recent bounce fizzled but new lows still likely
SUNE — Example of story stocks competing with momentum
TWTR — Not rejecting its dip under the 28 area
AAPL — Reacting down from its 122 bounce target
FEYE — Very premature to be bottom-fishing
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday morning’s surge is a credible first effort at rejecting the current lows. Closing above 1.0785 for two consecutive sessions would help to reverse momentum up.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday morning’s lows at 1073.00 fulfilled the decline’s outstanding 1074.50 objective. Reacting up almost instantly to 1089.00 at least reflects how much selling pressure had been neutralized. But closing above 1082.00 to actually begin sealing a bottom must still be confirmed.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having extended its drop while Gold was ranging, their roles were somewhat reversed Thursday morning. But now rallying simultaneously would confirm each other’s trend reversal.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Thursday into the afternoon’s auction stopped short of reversing the trend up, leaving outstanding the likelihood for probing fresh lows.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Meeting the outstanding 43.00 target Wednesday didn’t prevent extending down Thursday well under 42.00, heading to 39.95 so long as bounces now hold any test of 42.75.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s consolidation under 2.31 ahead of Friday’s delayed EIA report doesn’t greet it from a position of strength. But a reaction up through both 2.31 and 2.37 would be credible for sealing a bottom and reversing the trend up.
Mid-day Update… Digging toward a bottom?
Fresh session lows attacking new support.
The first hour had ranged choppily between 2054.00-2060.00 before launching a surge. It was too late to be sponsored by weak hands. Too late, and too early.
Just at the prospect of surging I had warned already it would be only temporary. Peaking 1 point short of its potential at 2063.50, the surge was retraced back into the 2054.00-2060.00 range.
The consequence of the inappropriately-timed surge was new session low. And now a noon hour drop is testing 2049.00. That’s almost within 1 point of this afternoon’s 2047.75 bias-down target. And the target won’t be put into play if its 2054.00 bias-down signal is recovered at 1:20 (a bounce is probing it now by 1 point).
Meanwhile, another setup may be forming — the Lunch Hour reversal. It is triggered by isolating a fresh session extreme to this timing window. So, recovering noon’s 2056.00 print coming out of the noon hour would presumably reject the interim probe under the morning’s lows.
The Lunch Hour reversal may be today’s last opportunity to launch a rally. Even then, recovering 2056.00 would be allowed up to one retest of the noon hour’s low. Anything lower would point down a lot.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 13, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar is both high-profile and influential. A pre-open and post-open report reflect the consumer, and a pre-open report reflects on producers. EIA Natty Gas was delayed a day for Wednesday’s holiday. And another Fed speaker takes the stage before the noon hour.
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
11:45 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2066.50 | 2061.25 |
| …would target | 2072.00 | 2067.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2059.00 | 2054.00 |
| …would target | 2053.00 | 2047.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.