Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
After testing the 2034.50 bias-down target, a bounce to 2038.50 greeted 8:30’s econ reports. Its reaction blipped-down to a fresh low at 2033.50 and back up again to a fresh high at 2040.00. Just opening in positive territory above 2041.00 and extending higher could isolate selling to the overnight window so the morning could rally throughout. The 2039.75 bias-down signal could be recovered, regardless, to marginalize sellers for the morning, if not the day. But not already rallying through 9:45 or 10:15 would still be vulnerable to resuming and extending the decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfcwht
The First Trade… Watch that last step.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap down to 2057.00 was the center of choppy ranging through the morning’s bias environment. When the window began lapsing, the decline extended. A noon hour bounce back up to 2057.00 was the last bit of optimism, as the balance of the cash session trended down to 2041.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Actually, the afternoon’s slide was still optimistic, since its likely target was 2039.75. Stopping optimistically short then made the next lower objective likelier. Ranging narrowly sideways overnight between 2040.00-2045.00 seems to have been even more optimism, since a sudden break lower quickly extended down to 2034.00.
If, then…
Meeting the 2034.50 target overnight creates a reversal setup unique to Fridays. Opening back in positive territory could get the best of both worlds — isolating the selling to overnight, while also leveraging the slingshot effect into an opening surge. Regardless of the opening print, not surging through the open would suggest the decline’s momentum remains intact. Then another Friday factor would become influential, as everyone rushes to be first through the exit ahead of weekend illiquidity. A renewed bias-down would essentially target the 2025.00 area.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2039.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2034.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2032.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2053.50 | 2048.50 |
| …would target | 2058.50 | 2053.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2044.75 | 2039.75 |
| …would target | 2039.50 | 2034.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The decline steepened during the afternoon. Opportunities to avoid extending the decline were ignored. Final action in the close never became capitulative, which isn’t bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Having finally broken free from testing the noon hour’s 2049.00 low, a 9-10 point probe was likely. That was met, but only barely, and only after the close. It’s more vulnerable to extending down than to reversing, next targeting 2034.50 and 2032.00. And they’re in-play without delay so long as bounces hold 2050.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
To view this recording: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzbpkk
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Still trending.
Was a bottoming opportunity discarded?
I had described the Lunch Hour reversal setup, which isolates a probe under the morning’s low to the noon hour. Enter and exit the noon hour above the morning’s (~2054.00) low, rejecting an interim dip to fresh lows.
It might not be the low, but it is often the momentum low. If it’s the momentum low, then the noon hour’s low can be retested during the bias environment’s exit. But that, too, must be isolated and recovered into the final hour.
The noon hour’s low was retested. But the final hour wasn’t entered back above 2054.00. The noon hour low’s retest isn’t being rejected, not on a timely basis, making it less likely to have been a momentum low.
Sellers are being eerily patient. The noon hour’s 2049.00 low is still being overlapped, and the 2045.50 low of its retest hasn’t been probed since entering the final hour. The final hour vulnerability to a short-squeeze notwithstanding, lower lows are likely.