Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… Crude Oil coming in.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s test of 1.0785 resistance didn’t extend higher Friday, and instead dipped back down to test Thursday’s 1.0725 low as support.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow ranging at or under 1082.00 didn’t suggest the decline was extending, but still doesn’t signal momentum reversing up.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow ranging entered the weekend still hovering at its recent trend lows instead of rejecting the trend, suggesting at least a fresh low intraday remains likely.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The bounce extended to 153-21 resistance Friday where reversing back under 152-15 would now resume the decline, but recovering 154-10 would still signal a much bigger recovery underway.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows testing 40.35 can extend to its 39.95 target so long as 41.00 now holds as resistance.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up into the EIA report extended up through 2.31, but closing also above 2.37 is needed to launch a new rally leg.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 16, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s only econ report is a Fed survey that is high-profile, but with no track record of influencing price action.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Mid-day Update… More to come?
Bouncing, still within the context of a correction.
Bouncing this morning from 2023.00 up to 2029.00 resolved down to 2021.25. But only briefly, as the dip was recover faster than it had developed. Attacking 2029.00 was consolidated. And then it broke higher.
The break higher targeted 2035.25. A 9-point surge is testing it up to 2036.75. While still well in negative territory.
Back under 2032.00 would signal the bounce had ended, probably reversing down to probe fresh session lows. But extending much higher first, through 2038.00, would start to suggest a bigger rally is underway.
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2037.00 | 2031.75 |
| …would target | 2042.00 | 2037.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2031.00 | 2026.00 |
| …would target | 2025.75 | 2020.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, TESTED BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Tiny exit door.
Race for the exit drives price sharply lower.
Not opening positive had already avoided one bullish setup. Opening within the 2034.50-2039.75 range still could have recovered the 2039.75 bias-down signal to avoid triggering. But remaining within the range made a probe under overnight lows likely.
Probing overnight lows still could have recovered both 2034.50-2039.75 bias parameters. But it had become a little late for that, and the bottom dropped out.
Dropping all the way through 10:15 fulfilled every bit of potential to the 2025.00 area, including the room for noise under it to 2023.25. The weekend’s impending illiquidity can accelerate afternoon intentions to fuel morning trends.
Oversold RSIs at the low doom any bounce to failure until the low’s retest. Not holding the low’s retest would next target 2012.00. If a bounce does form, it would benefit from future selling pressure having been accelerated into the morning.