Posts by Rod David
The market weighs in.
The horrible events in Paris happened after markets had closed. An impression is sure to be made, but it should be limited and temporary. Unless liquidity or earnings are threatened, markets tend not to be steered off-course by terror.
Those are very real possibilities, but they’re not currently relevant. The 2012.00 target of Friday’s decline was only attacked intraday to within 5 points, but it was met after the close as reports arrived. I’ll be comparing the effects to that level.
Wishing all the best to Paris and to Europe…
Monitor overnight Globex action at this link.
The Universe, week of Nov 14, 2015… Meh.
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
With one exception, no new components of the sector triggered a signal or did anything newly remarkable. The exception was CARA, which decided suddenly to stop basing for several minutes, rallied to its 17.75 target, and then fell right back down into the base. The actual move was a little more involved, but not much more so.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for November 16, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 12 | 12.00% |
| trends* | # flat: | 20 | 20.00% |
| # down: | 68 | 68.00% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 1.000 | 1.950 | down |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.150 | down |
| ARNA | 1.650 | 2.200 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.240 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | down |
| BTFL | 0.002 | 0.003 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.250 | 0.500 | down |
| CANN | 0.600 | 1.330 | flat |
| CANV | 0.795 | 1.160 | flat |
| CARA | 14.250 | 18.870 | flat |
| CBDS | 0.510 | 1.850 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.020 | 0.041 | flat |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.150 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | up |
| DIGP | 0.170 | 0.400 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.005 | 0.013 | down |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.006 | 0.018 | down |
| ENRT | 0.012 | 0.026 | down |
| ERBB | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.004 | 0.078 | up |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 2.940 | 3.140 | up |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.210 | 0.320 | down |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | flat |
| GWPH | 71.600 | 86.400 | down |
| HEMP | 0.050 | 0.107 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 26.000 | 36.000 | flat |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.180 | 0.280 | up |
| MCIG | 0.017 | 0.030 | down |
| MDBX | 0.040 | 0.070 | down |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MDRM | 0.008 | 0.025 | down |
| MINE | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MJNA | 0.036 | 0.048 | up |
| MNTR | 0.310 | 0.620 | down |
| MSRT | 1.410 | 1.880 | flat |
| MYEC | 0.014 | 0.021 | up |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NDEV | 0.016 | 0.053 | down |
| NMUS | 0.218 | 1.215 | down |
| NRTI | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| NTRR | 1.200 | 2.100 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.510 | 0.920 | up |
| OSLH | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| OXIS | 0.009 | 0.019 | down |
| PHOT | 0.010 | 0.030 | down |
| PLPL | 0.053 | 0.121 | down |
| PMCB | 0.095 | 0.115 | flat |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB (thcz) | 0.075 | 0.013 | flat |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.180 | 0.230 | up |
| SRNA | 0.100 | 0.185 | flat |
| STEV | 0.038 | 0.055 | down |
| TAUG | 0.003 | 0.005 | down |
| TRTC | 0.082 | 0.118 | down |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | down |
| TWMJF | 1.370 | 1.980 | up |
| UPOT | 0.040 | 0.125 | flat |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| VAPE | 0.001 | 0.038 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | up |
| VPCO | 0.170 | 0.550 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.005 | 0.013 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 1.300 | 1.850 | up |
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The two-week old pullback is really less than that. The first two sessions two weeks ago had rallied, and the next 2-3 sessions had retraced that. The newly-finished week didn’t trend down throughout, but it wasn’t much for counter-trending.
Only one prior low of the rally has been broken, which keeps the pullback corrective. Break another prior low, and the trend will have reversed down. How will that affect the potential to new highs? A lot. The upside was never a target, but the objective of a new upleg. A new downleg can take its place.
Having steepened the slope of the decline from the two-week old highs, a lot of selling pressure has now been expended without reversing the trend down. At least, not yet. There is room for a little more follow-through at or before Monday’s open. But not already rallying into the afternoon would undermine the recovery attempt.
Friday’s market wrap began early to encompass a bigger picture discussion. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvrpzy
REMINDER: No Saturday Review this weekend
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2032.00 | 2027.00 |
| …would target | 2038.00 | 2033.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2022.00 | 2017.00 |
| …would target | 2017.00 | 2012.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP AND BIAS-DOWN SIGNALS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… And a special note.
NOTE: Market “Wrap” will begin early today at 3:45 so we can discuss the bigger picture (there is no Saturday Review this weekend).
The noon hour rallied. It was entered at 2031.00 and extended to within 1 tick of the afternoon’s 2037.00 bias-up target. But that was retraced entirely, and then some, to test the 2026.00 bias-down signal.
Overlapping 2026.00 within 3 minutes of 1:20 invoked the grace period, which held. But being a Friday, the “late no-bias” signal didn’t enjoy its normal influence. Multiple legs overlapping it probed lower and lower to 2023.00.
Now the bias environment has begun lapsing. Fresh lows are testing 2018.00. The next opportunity for reacting up sharply would be 2015.75. There is otherwise potential down to 2012.00.