Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2079.25 | 2073.75 |
| …would target | 2084.25 | 2079.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2073.25 | 2068.00 |
| …would target | 2068.25 | 2062.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Gloves off.
Inhibitive, prohibitive influences lapsing.
The morning and afternoon no-bias environments were appropriate for the holiday-depressed volume. But now those influences have lapsed. Even the holiday is no longer relevant, as a session’s final hour becomes more about the day coming than the one ending.
The afternoon’s 2073.00 bias-down signal held as support during the no-bias environment. It reacted up to within 1 tick of 2078.00 whose recovery would have launched a new rally leg. And that recovery peaked at 2:30 when the bias environment began lapsing — still trending higher any later would have been bullish.
The reaction down is attacking this morning’s 2069.50 low to within 3 ticks. Breaking lower would have potential to 2062.75 and lower.
Daily Spot… Crude Oil meets its target.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s holiday trading was almost imperceptibly flat-to-higher, still neither confirming the decline’s momentum remains intact, nor rejecting it.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Very narrow ranging Wednesday maintained the attraction below to 1182.00 and eventually 1174.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming overnight was retraced and rejected to probe fresh lows Wednesday. A weak open Thursday that were to recover firmly into positive territory at this stage of the pattern would be credible for extending higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging kept alive the decline’s momentum targeting fresh lows, ahead of what is likely to be headline-rich session — Thursday is littered with Fed speakers, and includes the monthly 30-year auction.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The outstanding 43.00 target was met Wednesday and ranged around. Probing it next down to 41.00 is possible so long as bounces were to hold any test of 43.45.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Dipping back under 2.31 overnight still tried recovering into Wednesday’s close, but failed, as the balance of the session drifted lower. The setup remains intact for a same-session recovery of both 2.31 and 2.37 to launch a new rally leg.
Mid-day Update… One good turn deserves another.
Noon hour’s bounce reverses. Again.
The morning’s drop fulfilled its 2071.25 objective — testing the bias-down signal to offset that the 2080.50 bias-up signal had held its test as resistance.
An inverted Head & Shoulders formed there. The pattern proved very powerful, launching a rally to 2082.50. But, wait, there’s more…
The afternoon’s 2079.25 bias-up signal held its test to trigger no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2073.00 bias-down signal. And that has been touched.
This is still Veteran’s Day, but the market won’t care after the no-bias environment starts lapsing. That’s when price action starts discounting the next session. And this wide range — perhaps also including yesterday morning’s unresolved wide range — would be vulnerable to breaking either way.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 12, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Combined with Wednesday’s holiday, Thursday’s calendar is busy with four Fed speakers, the 30-year auction and more jobs data.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
9:05 AM ET
*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
10:15 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
11:45 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET