Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.75 | 2079.25 |
| …would target | 2090.00 | 2084.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2078.50 | 2073.00 |
| …would target | 2072.75 | 2067.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Promises, promises.
Sliding sharply into and out of the open.
The overnight rally’s risk was that it had priced out buyers, while becoming attractive to sellers, which would point down. Actually, a greater risk was to retest the 2086.00 bias-up target post-open before reversing down.
But the reversal down greeted the market under 2082.00. Extending through the 2080.50 bias-up signal failed to trigger it. An offsetting test of the 2071.25 bias-down signal is in-play.
The bias-up target was not tested post-open, so an offsetting test of the 2065.50 bias-down target isn’t in-play. Not officially. Nor is yesterday morning’s 2062.75 outstanding bias-down target. But their tests are likely until signaled otherwise.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Anymeeting has corrected the earlier issue, click here to enter…
The pre-open blip-up to 2087.00 was retested, reacting down again to test the 2084.00 interim low. If the overnight rally is attracting new sponsorship, then a little backing-and-filling would still be possible. Rallying so much can inhibit new sponsorship, and attract sellers. If the rally is too much to attract new sponsorship, then sellers might be strong-handed. Beware of the open reacting down back through the 2080.50 bias-up signal — especially if the 2086.00 bias-up target were retested post-open.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxsxsts
The First Trade… Indicating a gap up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s wide-ranging choppy morning had remained range bound, narrowing between 2065.00-2075.00. Firming into the final hour hovered above the morning’s high, but didn’t improve above 2079.00. The morning’s 2062.75 bias-down target was left outstanding below.
Overnight action’s new info…
Perhaps it’s a slow news day due to the holiday. But price has only ratcheted higher in stages. One leg up consolidated off of testing 2080.50, and another timed to Europe’s opens peaked at 2084.50. Its reaction down tested 2080.50 as support, before surging to fresh highs that blipped-up momentarily to touch 2087.00.
If, then…
2080.50 is this morning’s bias-up signal, and 2086.00 is its target. Both have been tested overnight. Impressive, but less relevant than their post-open disposition — especially after singularly-minded overnight trending. Recovering both to renew the bias-up could marginalize sellers for the day, as counter-trend sponsorship is inhibited by holiday-depressed volume. But while countering a trend is difficult, so is getting it started. Holding one or both bias-up parameter’s test could put into play a lower objective. And that same counter-trend inhibition could facilitate the influence of lower attractions.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2083.50 would be unlikely to exceed 2086.00 bias-up target at 10:15 whose recovery would have renewed the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2088.75 would be likely to renew the bias-up. Exiting the open under 2076.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2086.00 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2091.50 | 2086.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2076.75 | 2071.25 |
| …would target | 2071.00 | 2065.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.