Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s session is a different version of Friday. Probing of relevant support held, but wasn’t rejected. So, not gapping up Wednesday would be vulnerable to probing lower lows.
Friday and Tuesday differ from each other in two ways — the morning didn’t plunge this time, and the afternoon probed fresh session highs. But their similarities are more meaningful since both mornings were wide-ranging, and both afternoons waited until very late before probing fresh highs.
Neutralizing “unfinished business below” at Tuesday morning’s 2062.75 bias-down target would also likely retest Monday’s 2062.00 low. And that could launch a substantial rally. Otherwise, maintaining a sufficient gap up Wednesday could simply rally without the morning unpleasantness.
Wednesday is Veteran’s Day (U.S.) /Remembrance Day (Europe). Its solemness might be juxtaposed against a session that provides both volatility and trending, as the government holiday creates thinner participation.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzbzvs
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Looks familiar.
Retesting overnight highs.
The afternoon’s no-bias environment lapsed after barely piercing its 2074.00 bias-up signal. Apparently that didn’t strength the rubber band, as fresh highs have pierced the 2078.50 overnight high.
Extending higher would have been more credible this morning. Sapping up, surging, and quickly rejecting a post-open dip were all failed tactics. At least they were tried, and they haven’t let sellers retake control. Perhaps the patience of waiting until now will suffice.
Meanwhile, the shoe has switched feet. Rallying this morning had required being aggressive. Now, trending back down would likely be done aggressively. And retesting yesterday’s 2062.00 low — whether today or tomorrow — would be likely to launch a substantial rally.
Daily Spot… Seems a little quiet.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday was within Friday’s range, and not under all prior lows, making it unlikely to trend down. The balance of the session ranged has ranged narrowly flat-to-higher, albeit not recovering the gap down from Monday’s close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday was the second consecutive narrow ranging session at recent lows, which doesn’t reject the trend, but does open the door to a corrective bounce before extending down to 1074.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday tried trending down intraday, but only spent the session ranging in negative territory.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming into Tuesday afternoon attacked 152-30, which can resume the decline to probe fresh lows, or else have potential for extending to 153-21 first.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s bounce peaked before attacking the decline’s 44.95 bounce limit, keeping alive the decline’s momentum next targeting 43.00.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly to probe above 2.31 still needed to close above 2.37 to launch a rally. Initial strength at Wednesday’s open would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Mid-day Update… Caged tiger.
Wide swings persist.
This morning’s 2062.75 bias-down target is “unfinished business below.” Exiting the bias environment above its 2068.00 bias-down signal could have invalidated the signal. But despite probing it by 4 points, the bias environment’s exit was probing under 2068.00.
An even larger rally is possible, regardless of the attraction below. It’s just less likely, and unlikely to extend. But that’s no reason to short strength.
Regardless, the open’s wide swings persisted through the morning, and still imply the same expectation: That finally neutralizing the attraction below will produce a substantial rally.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 11, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Will Wednesday be slow, or volatile? Probably the latter, since it’s not a three-day weekend, but the closed bond market will keep volume light.
Veteran’s Day US / Remembrance Day Europe
Markets Open, US Banks Closed