Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2079.50 | 2074.00 |
| …would target | 2084.75 | 2079.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2071.75 | 2066.25 |
| …would target | 2066.75 | 2061.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… He who laughs last.
Tug of war is currently favoring sellers.
It has been awhile since we’ve seen such wide ranging, without any net move, so far past the open. More on that later…
Opening at the 2068.00 bias-down signal initially surged to 2073.50. Its complete retracement was recovered quickly to 2075.00. The next complete retracement has dipped even deeper to 2064.50. That overlapped the bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period. It wasn’t recovered through 10:30, triggering “late bias-down.”
The 2062.75 bias-down target is in-play. As we discussed during the pre-market Tour, that would likely probe under yesterday’s 2062.00 low. Meanwhile, back above 2070.00 would start to suggest the late bias-down is dead.
As for the open’s wide ranging, that helped to dilute the requirement for a rally to be immediate. Gapping up was the original requirement. The sizable legs then diluted the requirement for a quick recovery. Now all of those conditions have resolved in fresh lows. Buyers seem pretty eager, so finishing with the downside this morning should resolve in a very aggressive rally.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
NOTE: We’ll be troubleshooting the new Webex trading room after today’s close to resolve an audio issue, so that we can switch from the current platforms. This will not interfere with trading hours.
Maybe the turbulence means we’re getting ready to land, descending through the clouds… The overnight slide attacking 2066.00 had reacted up sharply to test 2072.00. That was retraced as quickly to a fresh low probing under 2066.00. Which bounced again, to 2071.00.
I’m thinking this 2066.00-2072.00 area might be relevant.
That’s not exactly rocket surgery. Timing will tell, as in triggering the 2068.00 bias-down signal at 10:15, or holding it.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmmhjkm
The First Trade… Tag-up (one more dip).
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s plunge through noon from 2088.00 to 2062.00 was the consequence of Fridya not having rejected the intraday probes under it. That consequence extended 8 points deeper than was necessary. The balance of the session reversed direction. Firming through the bias environment back up to 2072.00 didn’t gain traction, but that didn’t prevent a late surge to 2077.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Pulling back into and out of Monday’s close found immediate support at the 2070.00 area. Attacking 2079.00 into midnight ranged narrowly, but had started slipping already before Europe’s opens. That slipping became more aggressive on the way to fresh lows at 2066.25… Not so fast, there — a one-hour surge is retesting 2072.00.
If, then…
Without gaining traction Monday afternoon, the late extension higher set the stage for one of two resolutions. Either extend higher overnight, too, attracting new sponsorship that justifies the late optimism. Or, resume the decline Tuesday morning — and with a vengeance, the consequence of Monday afternoon’s nouveau optimism having only refueled Monday morning’s pessimism. But that sword can cut both ways, and opening down too deeply can quickly discover that few new sellers are being attracted, allowing a bottom to form.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2066.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2072.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2086.00 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2093.00 | 2087.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2073.50 | 2068.00 |
| …would target | 2068.25 | 2062.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.