Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s least likely scenario was a last-hour rally. But entering the final hour at 2068.00 support only attacked 2065.00. That reacted up sharply into the position-squaring window, and through it, probing fresh afternoon highs at 2077.50.
The afternoon’s pattern had formed an Ascending Triangle up to 2072.00 capable of launching the final hour’s rally. But it broke lower instead, under 2068.00 down to 2065.00. That did not qualify as fulfilling the break, so rallying already was premature — this construct is what I’m referring to as an unstable base.
The final hour’s rally can resume Tuesday, if it extends higher overnight. The bias environment exit and final hour’s entry didn’t gain traction, so new sponsorship forcing a gap up is the only way to avoid probing under Monday’s 2062.00 low.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpkhyv
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Recovery in hiding.
Bounces stopping short of anything significant.
Testing the afternoon’s 2070.50 bias-up signal without triggering it kept price range bound back down to 2066.50. Slightly higher highs since then have barely pierced 2072.00, and then only momentarily.
The bias environment exit was testing the noon hour’s high but not exceeding it. And now the final hour’s entry is within both ranges. There is no momentum, mostly no new momentum, so the greater vulnerability is to another drop.
Another drop would be triggered under 2068.00 (being tested now) and targeting fresh lows under 2062.00. Actually extending down wouldn’t be necessary. Not extending down would then be likely just to range sideways. A last-hour rally isn’t likely.
Daily Spot… Crude still leaking.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Narrow ranging Monday up to 1.0785 resistance didn’t duplicate Friday’s initial decline, but neither did it confirm its break as requiring any lower objective to be in-play. Extending the bounce has room up to 1.0865 before suggesting momentum may be reversing up.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s narrow ranging didn’t yet extend the decline, which is next targeting a test of 1082.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down into Monday’s open extended lower intraday to test two-month old prior lows at 14.45. Closing back above 14.70 would trigger a corrective bounce that might begin forming a bottom, but the downtrend isn’t otherwise likely to reverse up very soon.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A fresh low overnight at 152-10 did not extend intraday, but neither was it recovered as the session ranged narrowly at a several-tick defecit. Interestingly, this was while stocks fell, a relationship that suggests the low isn’t in.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The drop extended further toward its objective of retesting prior lows. Testing 43.65 intraday Monday now requires that bounces hold any test of 44.95 to maintain the decline’s momentum.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two consecutive sessions of probing above 2.31 without extending above 2.37 led to Monday’s dip back under 2.31. Momentum did not reverse down, so another early surge through 2.31 would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Mid-day Update… Reverse squeeze.
Morning’s slide hasn’t resumed.
The decline’s potential to 2064.50 was fulfilled down to 2062.00. Bouncing there through the noon hour touched this afternoon’s 2070.50 bias-up signal.
The signal’s touch pushed back.
Dipping back down to 2064.50 has avoided triggering bias-up signal. The 2060.50 bias-down signal isn’t triggering, and its offsetting test isn’t required during the afternoon.
But the level is relevant support. And exiting the bias environment under it would be likely to trend down for awhile. An afternoon recovery would be difficult if the bias environment isn’t already chipping away at the resistance of its 2070.50 bias-up signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 10, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is moderately busy. But it’s not very influential. None of its items have a track record of influencing price action.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET