Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2076.00 | 2070.50 |
| …would target | 2081.25 | 2075.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2066.00 | 2060.50 |
| …would target | 2061.00 | 2055.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Selling doesn’t wast time.
Doubly renewed bias-down.
The overnight slide had greeted the open at the morning’s 2087.25 bias-down signal. Post-open action blipped-down 4 points momentarily, but its reaction up to 2088.00 was retraced even more aggressively. And much more substantially.
The 10:15 bias timing window renewed the bias-down signal by exceeding the 2082.25 bias-down target. The first hour has extended down to the 2072.50 minimum lower objective.
Objectively, by probing under Friday’s low, the market has fulfilled the minimum consequence to Friday’s failure to reverse up from probing under 2088.00. Structurally, by testing the 2072.50 “throat” of a recent “V” bottom, the market has tested a relevant support.
Calculably, potential for testing the 2070.00 area now relies on maintaining the downward momentum. And that’s being threatened — at least 1-minute RSI just diverged positively at 2071.75, before reacting up to 2075.50.
I’m not looking for a durable bounce this morning, and probably won’t chase a buy signal without the market forming a bottoming pattern. Potential to extend down remains intact, but no longer required.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The consolidation around this morning’s 2087.25 bias-down signal is persisting into the open. Not gapping up keeps last week’s pattern vulnerable to extending down further before recovering — whether to test 2072.50, 2070.00, or 2064.50. Blipping-up through the open would be likely to fail, unless maintained well into positive territory.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/yptsykv
The First Trade… In search of solid buyers.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The reaction to Fridays’ pre-open payrolls report had plunged 12-17 points down to 2082.00. Recovering most of it through the open nevertheless reacted down to fresh lows at 2077.50. The balance of the session ranged choppily higher to attack 2094.00, repeatedly overlapping the critical 2088.00 level, while still within Thursday’s range.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s flat open soon probed fresh highs at 2098.00. That was brief, and retraced entirely, then reversed into negative territory at 2087.00. That’s essentially this morning’s bias-down signal, and several hours have ranged there sideways, touching 2086.00.
If, then…
Not rejecting Friday’s probes under 2088.00 kept the market vulnerable to probing even deeper, like to the 2070.00 area. Gapping up could serve by proxy as the rejection that Friday failed to produce. But the overnight slide is more in-line with the rally still needing to launch from a lower level.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2087.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2085.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
We’re all dying to know.
Globex trading will resume at 6:00pm ET. Did last week’s pullback shed enough weight for another lift-off? Will more buyers be sought at lower levels? The answer might not be available immediately, but you can monitor overnight developments by clicking here.