Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Another brick laid in the launchpad?
Recovering the post-open drop would have consequences.
Another pre-open dip having attacked the Payrolls’ 2082.00 low. The open was greeted back above 2088.00. Its recovery extended to 2096.25.
RSIs improved throughout, so it was surprising not have extended higher. But the 2095.00 pullback limit was violated and the 2091.00 sell signal was triggered, on the way to sharply lower lows at 2077.50.
This renewed the bias-down signal by breaking under the 2085.50 bias-down target through 10:15. The renewed bias-down target was met already at 2079.00.
Renewing the bias-down made lower lows likely to test the 2070.00 area. But a bounce is already testing the 2091.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Exiting the bias environment above it would marginalize sellers for the day. And probably for a lot longer, ultimately being yet another failed probe under 2088.00.
Exiting the bias environment back under its 2085.50 bias-down target would not reject the bias-down. Sellers would not be marginalized. And the 2070.00 area would remain in-play.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
And that’s why the reaction to news is allowed 90 seconds to work itself out… Payrolls was greeted at 2094.00 and the next two minutes ranged up to 2097.50 and down to 2082.00. Even that was didn’t include the next minute’s surge to a fresh high at 2099.00, or its reaction back down to 2091.00.
Coincidentally, recovering 2091.50 through the open would start to reflect the pre-open selling under 2088.00 may be isolated there. The consequence would be to retest yesterday’s 2103.00-2104.50 highs, if not also fresh highs for the week. But not recovering through the open would leave the balance of the morning under pressure, perhaps down to the 2070.00 area.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjzych
The First Trade… Back to business?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s 19-point slide fulfilled multiple objectives that had been attracting price down, inhibiting the rally from resuming. Bouncing through the noon hour was unable to extend, and the afternoon only ranged choppily, once the next day’s Employment Situation report began paralyzing price action.
Overnight action’s new info…
The overnight 2092.00-2095.00 range was narrower than most intraday timing windows. First dipping to the range’s lower-end and then bouncing to its upper-end is now dipping again to its lower-end. But it’s otherwise only noise, continuing to be inhibited ahead of this morning’s Employment report.
If, then…
Having neutralized the “unfinished business below” yesterday, the rally is free to resume. Son, not resuming the rally would be likely instead to extend down more substantially, if not also steeply. Resuming the rally need not be either substantial or steep, simply obvious — probing and extending to new recovery highs.
First Trade…
There are no preliminary levels ahead of an Employment Situation report.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s chop was a predictable product of anxiousness ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report. The influential news is being greeted from a pullback that held 2088.00 as support. This followed two consecutive closes above 2088.00 (and an interim session that avoided it altogether). If 2088.00‘s recovery is relevant, then Friday’s news reaction should resume rallying into the weekend. Otherwise, breaking back under 2088.00 would signal a deeper drop underway — still probably just a detour on the way to temporarily probing new highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzbwwh
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.50 | 2099.50 |
| …would target | 2111.50 | 2105.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2097.50 | 2091.50 |
| …would target | 2091.50 | 2085.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.