Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Waiting for a shoe.
Paralyzed ahead of payrolls.
Fulfilling the bounce potential to 2095.00 into the noon hour made it difficult to attract new sponsorship. So, ranging flat-to-higher through the noon hour gained no traction.
The afternoon’s 2097.50 bias-up signal was tested but not triggered. During the morning, that setup would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2089.50 bias-down signal.
The bias environment drifted lower to fulfill 2089.50 anyway. Entering the final hour under the bias environment’s 2090.00 low could be bearish. Otherwise, there’s no requirement for the balance of the session.
Livestox warning!
Join us Friday for Livestox at 12:15pm ET. There’s a lot of critical price action among group favorites like FEYE, AAPL, TWTR, CARA, INSY, Biotechs, Crude Oil and Gold. Cannabis stocks are interesting, too — especially the repeat 3rd-day surges among several Canadian issues, and sudden high-volume surges in MCIG and TRTC.
An important economic report will have released, monthly Employment Situation report, a.k.a. Payrolls, a.k.a. NFP, a.k.a. interest rate influencer. The broader market’s reaction could be very telling of its intent through Thanksgiving and into the December FOMC meeting.
Add your stock requests to this blog’s comments section. If you cannot attend, the recording will be available before the close.
Login here by 12:15 ET Friday.
Daily Spot… Have turning points arrived?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up shallowly Thursday didn’t extend higher intraday as it remained within Wednesday’s range. At least a momentary probe under Wednesday’s low would be optimal to forming a bottom, but not necessary.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s narrow ranging around the 1106.50 objective met Wednesday didn’t extend the decline, or reject it. But now early strength Friday would be credible for extending higher intraday, or else new lows become likely.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing lower lows Thursday remained under pressure throughout the session. An immediately rally leg would not be credible for extending without first forming a basing pattern.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows Thursday fulfilled the minimum 153-25 objective. But the decline’s momentum remains intact so long as bounces don’t recover above ‘higher prior lows” at 154-10/154-14.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing under 46.00 Thursday didn’t accelerate down, which significantly undermines whether the critical support is actually breaking lower. Wednesday’s “ineffectual optimism” hovering just above 46.00 suggested a valid break would be aggressive. Further delaying lower lows would make another bounce likely targeting 49.15.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to 2.31 extended intraday to test 2.37 whose recovery would signal a much more significant rally leg finally underway. Closing back under 2.31 would target at least one more fresh low.
Mid-day Update… Not so fast.
Decline absorbed, but not rejected.
No-bias trending often retraces not only the bias signal, but the level printed at 10:15. That was 2095.00, and it was tested into the noon hour.
Flat-to-higher ranging since then tested this afternoon’s 2097.50 bias-up signal. But it didn’t trigger. Now 2095.00 is being probed down to 2093.00.
Could this lack of direction be foreshadowing price action for the rest of the session? Employment Situation report is tomorrow morning, and anxiousness ahead of it often paralyzes trending attempts.
For now, the 2095.00 bias-up signal held its test, leaving room to gravitate down to the 2089.75 bias-down signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 6, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Employment Situation report is often released without any other econ reports. But it isn’t common to appear so close to a Fed speaker.
*James Bullard Speaks
7:30 AM ET
**Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Lael Brainard Speaks
4:15 PM ET