Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2104.00 | 2097.50 |
| …would target | 2110.50 | 2104.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2096.25 | 2089.75 |
| …would target | 2089.75 | 2083.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Fattened up, and now a lot thinner.
Overnight rally and post-open bounce slaughtered.
Apparently the overnight rally had reacted down into the open too much too quickly. Another bounce was needed to fatten it up again.
Just to be sure, the 2099.00 preliminary resistance held a test through 9:45. That suggested the 2101.00 bias-up signal wouldn’t trigger. So, despite probing the bias-up signal up to 2103.00, a reaction down avoided triggering it.
And now having tested the bias-up signal without triggering it, an offsetting test of the 2089.75 bias-down signal was put into play. It was tested at 10:30, but not decisively enough to invalidate the no-bias environment signaled at 10:15.
That didn’t prevent “no-bias trending” beyond the bias signal, which extended down to 2084.00 (also fulfilling the 2088.25 unfinished business below, and this morning’s 2084.75 bias-down target).
Now that probe has been retraced to the 2089.75 bias-down signal as the no-bias trending required. Often, no-bias trending is retraced also to the 10:15 print, which is 2095.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Fattened up, after all? The earlier rally has fizzled. It was attacking 2105.00 and yesterday morning’s bias environment high, whose recovery through the open would be assured of reversing the near-term trend back up. But now its reaction down is probing 2 points under yesterday’s 2100.50 noon hour high, whose non-recovery would resume the attraction down to unfinished business at 2088.25.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcryjvr
The First Trade… Fattening it up for the kill?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap down barely tried recovering before extending even lower through the noon hour down to 2090.50. The afternoon’s bounce to 2100.00didn’t reverse the trend back up, and “unfinished business below” was left outstanding at the 2088.25 bias-down target.
Overnight action’s new info…
Firming up to 2098.00 was contained easily within yesterday afternoon’s range. A 6-point drop at Europe’s opens was recovered entirely, first back up to 2098.00, and then through yesterday afternoon’s 2101.00 high to attack 2105.00.
If, then…
Gapping up above yesterday’s 2100.50 noon hour high might not be enough to break the attraction to 2088.25 below. It might, but recovering 2105.50 would be more assuring. Anyway, the reward would be to probe Tuesday’s 2110.25 high, probably up to 2113.00 or could allow probing Tuesday’s 2110.25 high before 2117.00. BOJ and BOE overnight endorsed lower rates, prompting the overnight rally. But a litter of Fed speakers are scheduled throughout today who are likely to promote the opposite.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2104.50 would be likely to trigger the 2101.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2099.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2109.25 would become likely also to exceed the 2107.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The afternoon bias environment’s bounce failed to invalidate its 2088.25 bias-down target. Not for lack of trying. Each successively higher requirement was challenged — 2093.50, 2097.25, 2100.50 — but not recovered through a relevant timing window. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower.
2088.25 can be met overnight, and Thursday’s open can be greeted in recovery mode. Overbought RSIs at Tuesday’s 2110.25 high still require a retest, probably up to 2113.00 or 2117.00. Or higher, having pulled back already on Wednesday instead of first neutralizing the attraction above.
Regardless of the overnight low, not gapping up would suggest Wednesday’s pullback is bleeding into Thursday. The rally has entrenched its objective at new highs, and shouldn’t close under 2088.00 more than once, if at all.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxptxp
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc