Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2107.50 | 2101.00 |
| …would target | 2113.50 | 2107.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2096.25 | 2089.75 |
| …would target | 2091.25 | 2084.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close View… Soooo close.
Bias-down rejected, but not reversed.
The 2093.50 bias-down signal triggered cleanly and extended down another 3 points. It was retested at 1:30, but not recovered, which would have rejected bias-down.
Bias-down still could be rejected, but more expensively, by the bias environment lapsing above the last relative high at 2097.25. It was still being overlapped. Probed, but overlapped.
The last opportunity to reject the bias-down would be entering the final hour above the prior timing window’s high. That printed during the noon hour at 2100.50. It was attacked to within 2 ticks, but not recovered.
So, no relevant level was recovered at a relevant time. But that didn’t prevent price from creeping higher anyway.
Probing above 2100.50 through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be credible for triggering a short-squeeze. Otherwise, the balance of the session would be undetermined — capable of trending either way, while likelier just to range sideways into the close.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday filled the outstanding gap from last Thursday’s close, and probed its 1.0905 low down to 1.0850. A bottom may now begin forming, but the optimal setup of instantly rejecting the fresh low must now wait until Thursday’s close or Friday’s open. Then a valid recovery should reverse up abruptly and aggressively.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday night’s reaction stopped $4 short of its 1226.50 bounce limit before resolving back down into Wednesday’s open. The decline’s next lower target at 1106.50 was tested. A bounce could test 1118.50 before signaling momentum reversing up.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s lower lows testing 15.10 fulfilled the minimum third lower close created by the two prior sessions’ consecutive lower closes. Closing Thursday back above a prior relative low like would be credible for reversing momentum up.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows down to 154-11 continued narrowing the range back down to the 153-25 area objective.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting down to Wednesday’s EIA report attacked the 46.00 pullback limit that would keep alive potential for the corrective bounce to test 49.15 before ending.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming into Wednesday’s open held 2.31 resistance and reacted down to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s 2.25 close. A knee-jerk reaction above 2.31 on Thursday’s EIA report would be credible for extending higher.
Mid-day Update… A refreshing pause?
No-bias, no-bias trending, and trapping weak-handed shorts.
The open’s test of the 2099.00 bias-down signal held, triggering no-bias at 10:15. An offsetting test of the 2106.75 bias-up signal was put into play — but not as a requirement, since it had been tested already at the open.
A bounce only tested 2105.00 before dipping back to the lows. And through them to the morning’s 2093.50 bias-down target. Being a no-bias environment, that was “no-bias trending,” requiring its retracement back up to the 2099.00 bias-down signal. Its attraction above has been neutralized. But not recovered.
Even if we knew with 100% certainty that this morning’s sellers were weak-handed, we would not be assured of when or where a recovery would begin. And we do know this morning’s sellers were weak-handed, holding the bias-down signal instead of triggering it, probing under it later and still recovering.
But we don’t know that with 100% certainty, or if the entrenched rally intends to rest on its laurels more deeply before recovering. Unless bias-up is triggered, lower lows may yet be probed.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 5, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday has almost two times more Fed speakers than the previous day. They’re the day’s highlights. But I continue to highlight Jobless Claims despite it not influencing price action much anymore, especially ahead of Friday’s payrolls.
*Stanley Fischer Speaks
Wed 6:00 PM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*Stanley Fischer Speaks
9:10 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
10:40 AM ET
*Daniel Tarullo Speaks
12:45 PM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET