Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2110.75 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2117.50 | 2111.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.00 | 2093.50 |
| …would target | 2094.75 | 2088.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The other way to skin a cat
Overnight pullback was only delayed.
There were two bullish scenarios coming into the open. One would have rallied immediately. Popping up a couple of points from 2106.00 — twice — never extended any higher than the first 3 minutes.
The second bullish scenario may be playing out. That’s to hold a test of the 2099.00 bias-down signal through 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2106.75 bias-up signal. In fact, 2099.00 has held a test, and a retest while 1-minute RSI diverged positively.
Bouncing from the low tested 2103.00. Reacting down several points has still avoided triggering bias-down at 10:15.
This is a no-bias environment. Having held a test of the bias-down signal, and offsetting test of the bias-up signal is in-play. Breaking under 2099.00 at 10:30 would invalidate the signal that triggered at 10:15. Just touching 2099.00 within 3 minutes of 10:15 would invoke the grace period through 10:30.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Buyers conditioned to be impatient did prevent a third consecutive overnight pullback. But the rally in its place has been a restrained optimism that is attacking yesterday’s high only hesitatingly. This suggests that a post-open rally would begin almost immediately, but an immediate post-open rally wouldn’t be any less vulnerable to reversing down later.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzbkcp
The First Trade… Pavlovian rally day.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap down was likely to be absorbed and reversed since Monday’s rally had gained traction. The balance of the morning trended back up through Monday’s high to fulfill the reward owed to Monday’s rally. The afternoon’s trended higher still. Its reaction down into the close held the noon hour’s range.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy sideways action has avoided negative territory. So far, it has formed an Ascending Triangle. As we discussed during the Wrap, rallying out of the prior two overnight pullbacks had likely conditioned the market not to allow another overnight pullback.
If, then…
Also discussed during the Wrap was the resulting vulnerability of being conditioned to buy impatiently. Tuesday’s high held a relevant target, satisfying a lot of buying pressure. No traction was gained for the rally’s efforts, so no further reward is owed it. New highs are in-play, entrenching the uptrend, which often allows the rally to rest. By the way, a lot of Fed speakers are scheduled today, and they’re probably not going to be whispering sweet nothings into the rally’s ear. Overbought RSIs at Tuesday’s high requiring an eventual retest might help to resume the rally Wednesday morning, but its attraction can be neutralized quickly.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2110.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2106.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2101.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2113.50 | 2106.75 |
| …would target | 2119.50 | 2113.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2105.50 | 2099.00 |
| …would target | 2100.25 | 2093.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.