Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s reaction down from its 2110.25 bias-up target had potential down to 2102.00. It was probed by 5 ticks. Simultaneously overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were left outstanding at the high requiring its retest. And two consecutive relentless intraday rallies have conditioned the market, so an overnight pullback might be avoided.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzbfsy
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Stuck upward.
Still probing nailed to the highs.
The bias environment exit was above the noon hour’s high. But neither the final hour’s entry nor the 3:10-3:20 timing window extended higher. The rally isn’t gaining traction for today’s efforts.
But it also isn’t being rejected. Trending sessions that exit the bias environment above all prior timing window extremes tend not to reverse intraday. This doesn’t mean the rally will extend higher, although overbought RSIs at the high do require a retest. But trending back down is difficult.
The high touched this afternoon’s 2110.25 bias-up target, and its immediate reaction violated the pullback limit without delay. So, the most bullish scenario may be limited to ranging sideways into the close.
That said, a temporary corrective pullback to 2104.00 would not undermine the rally. Probing under 2102.00 could be a problem.
Daily Spot… Settling scores.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The corrective bounce’s retracement extended down Tuesday to test Thursday’s 1.0960 gap up from the low close. Probing a fresh low Wednesday under 1.0903 and closing positive on the day would be the optimal bottoming pattern at this stage.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down and trending lower intraday probed the next objective at 1118.00 down to 1114.00. Bouncing immediately back above 1126.50 could produce a corrective bounce to 1146.00. Otherwise, extending any deeper would target 1106.50 and 1094.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday to Monday’s lows didn’t prevent extending down to fresh lows intraday. Barely qualifying as a second consecutive lower close to confirm Monday’s breakout, now at least a third lower close is likely unless Monday’s 15.40 close were recovered immediately
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The ongoing decline extended to its lowest levels Tuesday. Near-term support is 154-16, and any lower would next target 153-22. Closing back above 155-14 would start to signal momentum reversing back up.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Multi-session narrow hovering around the 46.00 bounce limit has resolved before reversing back down. Tuesday’s test of 48.20 is likely also to visit 49.15. I still consider this only a corrective bounce, but any higher would be vulnerable to extending much higher regardless of its label.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging didn’t exploit Monday’s “ineffectual pessimism,” which still needs to recover 2.31 and 2.37 to signal momentum reversing up.
Mid-day Update… Pumped up.
Probing fresh highs just short of a signal.
This afternoon’s 2103.50 bias-up signal was touched within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window. The grace period through 1:30 was invoked. And 2103.50 was still being overlapped.
This is a noN-bias environment. Not a bias-up with a specific higher target. Not a no-bias whose upper-end is likely to be defined by the bias-up signal.
Piercing higher to 2104.25 just 1 minute later makes no difference. Being a noN-bias, price can extend higher. But often a noN-bias environment is still restrained by its bias signal, similar to a no-bias.
Often, a noN-bias environment simply ranges narrowly at the bias signal. But this pattern only allows room down to 2100.50 before starting to signal momentum reversing down.
Yesterday’s traction was rewarded by this morning’s uptrend to a fresh high. Only one door remains open to rejecting yesterday’s close above 2088.00, which is to close back under 2088.00 today.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 4, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday is littered with Fed speakers. The day also has the ADP report that offers some insight into the market’s sentiment ahead of Friday’s payrolls. ISM also has a track record of influencing price action.
*Lael Brainard Speaks
5:30 AM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
8:45 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
**Janet Yellen Speaks
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
2:30 PM ET