Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2110.25 | 2103.50 |
| …would target | 2117.00 | 2110.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2103.50 | 2096.75 |
| …would target | 2097.75 | 2091.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Shutting down sellers.
Single-minded overnight slide evaporates.
A post-open dip tried to retrace a pre-open bounce by probing 1 point under 2091.50. Its break would have indicated momentum reversing back down. But its test was isolated to the session’s first 5 minutes, every one of the test’s bars still overlapped 2091.50, and their 3-minute low was never pierced.
Sellers failed to regain control. Another dip from a higher high held another test of 2091.50. It was even more brief and shallower before recovering to another higher high.
Both dips avoided touching the 2089.50 bias-down signal. An offsetting test of the 2098.50 bias-up signal was never put into play. Nevertheless, 2098.50 is being tested now.
This is still a no-bias environment, so 2098.50 is likely to hold its test, or at least to define the bias environment’s upper-end. Probing above it would be doomed to failure, required to return down to 2098.50, if not also to 10:15’s 2094.00 print.
Probing above 2098.50 could even extend above yesterday’s highs. That would be doubly doomed to failure for its inappropriate origin, and for fulfilling yesterday afternoon’s traction. Otherwise, a contained bias environment that isn’t exited under the open’s lows would still be likely to probe higher this afternoon.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight pullback extended down to 2089.00. That’s a test of this morning’s 2089.50 bias-down signal, and a it held a retest after bouncing to 2091.00. That formed a Double Bottom, which has bounced to attack 2094.00.
So, back to rally mode, rewarding the traction gained by yesterday’s rally? Back under 2091.75 could get slippery, and extend down to 2088.00. Exiting the open below it could undermine yesterday’s upward traction.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpkwjy
The First Trade… Stored energy.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s open had recovered a lot already between Friday’s last-minute plunge and Sunday night’s lower lows that met the 2064.50 bias-down target. But opening back above Friday’s 2076.00 last relative low never really looked back on the way to fulfilling expectations for retesting last week’s 2094.75 overnight high. The rally’s gained traction for its effort by exiting the bias environment and entering the final hour trending upward. A reaction down from 2100.00 ended the cash session 1 point above 2094.75, still above the rally’s 2088.00 objective.
Overnight action’s new info…
Reacting down into the cash session close extended down into the futures close. It extended deeper into the Globex open down to 2092.25. Bouncing to 2097.25 was brief, and resolved into a downtrend that is now probing fresh lows at 2090.25, piercing yesterday’s noon hour high as support.
If, then…
Gapping open under 2088.00 could invalidate yesterday’s close above it. That would still leave outstanding the gap back up to yesterday’s close wanting to be filled, but from a position of weakness likely to be reversed back down. Opening above 2088.00 could still reject an intraday recovery, but that would be the rally’s last opportunity to avoid new highs. Meanwhile, traction gained for yesterday’s effort wasn’t rewarded overnight, making a morning rally likely, or else an afternoon rally so long as morning selling is contained.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2088.00 would be to trigger the 2089.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2094.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.25 | 2098.50 |
| …would target | 2110.00 | 2103.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2096.00 | 2089.50 |
| …would target | 2090.25 | 2083.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.