The First Trade… Stored energy.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Monday’s open had recovered a lot already between Friday’s last-minute plunge and Sunday night’s lower lows that met the 2064.50 bias-down target. But opening back above Friday’s 2076.00 last relative low never really looked back on the way to fulfilling expectations for retesting last week’s 2094.75 overnight high. The rally’s gained traction for its effort by exiting the bias environment and entering the final hour trending upward. A reaction down from 2100.00 ended the cash session 1 point above 2094.75, still above the rally’s 2088.00 objective.

Overnight action’s new info…
Reacting down into the cash session close extended down into the futures close. It extended deeper into the Globex open down to 2092.25. Bouncing to 2097.25 was brief, and resolved into a downtrend that is now probing fresh lows at 2090.25, piercing yesterday’s noon hour high as support.

If, then…
Gapping open under 2088.00 could invalidate yesterday’s close above it. That would still leave outstanding the gap back up to yesterday’s close wanting to be filled, but from a position of weakness likely to be reversed back down. Opening above 2088.00 could still reject an intraday recovery, but that would be the rally’s last opportunity to avoid new highs. Meanwhile, traction gained for yesterday’s effort wasn’t rewarded overnight, making a morning rally likely, or else an afternoon rally so long as morning selling is contained.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2088.00 would be to trigger the 2089.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2094.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.