Posts by Rod David
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday was a second consecutive non-trending session. But it didn’t start by gapping up like Friday, and it didn’t gap down, so we know that buying pressure isn’t expended. Anyway, higher objectives remain outstanding — from a third higher close, to the rally’s 2088.00 objective.
None of which prevents probing lower Tuesday, whether by trending or by gapping down. In fact, Monday morning left outstanding “unfinished business below” at its 2058.50 bias-down target. But it was an inside day, as was the overnight action, so gapping open in either direction Tuesday would be likely to extend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhfjfh
This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at:
non-xp ilinc
Pre-close View… Getting past the noise.
Prior session’s influence is lapsing.
Opening essentially flat within the range of a non-trending session wasn’t likely to trend intraday. That influence applies through the afternoon bias environment.
Now the bias environment has begun lapsing. And 2063.50 is being overlapped just like this morning’s bias environment exit. The bias environment also began lapsing within the noon hour’s range, and the final hour’s entry need not be any different. Trending today is still a little suspicious.
But if the noise isn’t going to extend through tomorrow morning’s bias environment, then it should be ending soon. Unfinished business below at 2058.50 remains in-play. Recovering positive territory above 2066.00 would be credible for extending higher, instead.
Daily Spot… Nasty Gas.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up slightly and firming Monday was contained within the 1.1100 bounce limit which keeps alive the downward momentum, and the confirmed break that is now seeking at least a third lower close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up slightly Monday was just enough to range narrowly around the 1165.50 pullback limit that had held until Friday morning. Closing above 1170.00 would now target 1180.00, and then fresh highs.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing around 15.85 Friday had suggested that sellers didn’t gain any traction. Gapping up slightly Monday didn’t extend higher, but its tempered optimism keeps alive potential for resuming the rally.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday above Friday’s range didn’t invalidate its break, and left outstanding the gap back to Friday’s close which can attract price down to resume the decline.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness kept the pattern under pressure as lower targets remain outstanding, but a confirmed breakout close is still lacking.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending down Sunday night from Friday’s 2.27 close extended down Sunday night and intraday Monday to 2.05. Closing above 2’08 would suggest the decline was bottoming. But no recovery is signaled until also recovering above 2.16.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 27, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Last week’s slow calendar is very high-profile and influential. Tuesday offers only a small taste, with several such reports. Keep in mind that any reaction to pre-open reports like Durable Goods tends to be duplicated by other reports.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2074.75 | 2068.00 |
| …would target | 2079.50 | 2073.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2066.75 | 2060.25 |
| …would target | 2061.75 | 2055.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.