Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2067.50 | 2061.00 |
| …would target | 2072.50 | 2066.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2059.50 | 2053.00 |
| …would target | 2054.50 | 2048.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Enough, already?
Bias-down triggered late, fulfilled early.
Gapping down to 2055.00 bounced up to 2061.00. That was already 1 point higher than optimal for being only a bounce, but still 1 tick short of reversing momentum up. So, momentum reversed down, aggressively.
The 2053.50 bias-down target was met to within 1 tick. And it was met before 10:30, offsetting the late 2058.50 bias-down signal which was still being overlapped at 10:15. Regardless, inflection at 2058.25 was triggered.
Now another bounce is attacking testing 2058.50 as resistance. Still being a bias-down environment, it’s likely to define the range’s upper-end for at least another 15-20 minutes. Probing above it any earlier would risk being “no-bias trending” doomed to failure.
Extending the bounce back above 2061.00 would start to signal that no-bias trending was developing, anyway. Dipping back under 2057.50 instead would start to signal the pullback was resuming, and extending to test “lower prior highs” at 2047.00-2048.00.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight dip to 2057.50 had neutralized the attraction below at 2058.50. But its reaction only formed a trading range. Its probe under yesterday’s lows wasn’t actually rejected. And now 2057.50 is being probed more deeply down to 2054.50.
The 2053.50 bias-down target is just 1 point lower. Holding its test through 10:15 can avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Reacting up from its test might even recover the 2058.50 bias-down signal through 10:15 avoid triggering it. Anything short of that is more vulnerable to extending lower to probe Thursday’s 2047.00-2048.00 “lower prior highs.”
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkjpvx
The First Trade… Stretching the rubber band?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Following Sunday night’s “inside day,” opening Monday in the middle of Friday’s non-trending range made intraday trending unlikely. In fact, Monday was an inside day, too. It left outstanding the morning’s 2058.50 bias-down target that had been triggered and not invalidated.
Overnight action’s new info…
Gradual weakness eventually slid sharply to probe Monday’s 2058.50 unfinished business, down to 2056.75. A choppy range has formed there back up to 2062.00.
If, then…
Last night’s action has probed under Monday’s low to barely touch Friday’s low. Not quickly rejecting one test then tends to proceed to the next such attraction. So, isolating the tests to overnight action can avoid retesting Friday’s low intraday, by already probing a prior high above 2066.00 into Tuesday’s open. Otherwise, Friday’s low isn’t obligated to offer much support if tested, and would likelier be probed down to Thursday’s “lower prior highs” under 2049.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2057.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2058.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2052.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2053.50 bias-down target at 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2066.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2074.50 | 2068.00 |
| …would target | 2080.50 | 2074.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2065.00 | 2058.50 |
| …would target | 2060.00 | 2053.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.